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January 2025.
As part of the program Regional Initiative for combating disinformation “Western Balkans Combatting disinformation Center: Exposing malicious influences through fact-checking and Analytical Journalism“, we present you a new analysis of fake news and disinformation narratives.
Bulgarian diplomat: No sanctions, Vučić takes over NIS from Russians and hands it over to the USA
The beginning of this year was marked by the decision of the U.S. Department of the Treasury to impose sanctions on the NIS Serbia. The decision states that the sanctions were imposed under Executive Order 14024, which concerns the blocking of assets in relation to certain harmful foreign activities of the Russian Federation’s government. Sanctions were also imposed under Executive Order 13662, which pertains to the blocking of assets of entities linked to the situation in Ukraine. The reason for the sanctions on NIS, as mentioned in the decision, is its connection with Gazprom Neft, which is the largest shareholder of the company with a 50% stake. An additional 6.15% of ownership belongs to its parent company, Gazprom. The Republic of Serbia holds 29.87% of the capital, while the remaining 13.98% is owned by minority shareholders.
President Vučić discussed the issue in Belgrade with Richard Verma, Deputy U.S. Secretary of State for Management and Resources, stating that the sanctions were not entirely clear to him. Verma said that the goal was to remove Russian ownership from the NIS structure, emphasizing that this would not have economic consequences for Serbia. On the other hand, President Vučić pointed out that Serbia is ready to buy out the Russian stake but that it is unclear how this could be realized. “We will not seize anyone’s property, not even Russian property. We are ready to pay, we have the funds, just tell us whom and where to send them,” Vučić said.
On the other hand, Sergey Lavrov stated that Moscow is in contact with Serbia regarding the fate of NIS, emphasizing that the situation requires “brave decisions.” He accused the U.S. and the EU of “twisting Serbia’s arm” by asking it to betray Russia. What is certain is that the U.S. will not agree to a reduction in Russian ownership, but instead demands Russia’s complete exit from the capital of the Oil Industry of Serbia, which was confirmed by President Vučić himself.
Srbin.info published a report stating that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić raised the alarm that the U.S. would impose sanctions on the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), which is majority-owned by Russia. Analysts suggest that his real goal is to take control of the company and “bring in an American investor to NIS.” According to Bulgarian analyst Vasilev, Vučić is aware that the Kremlin can no longer extract the same economic benefits from oil, “so he’s switching sides.”
The exit of Gazprom Neft from NIS seems inevitable, and Serbian authorities are facing a tight deadline to find a solution. President Vučić has set February 15 as the final deadline to define a strategy, while sanctions will officially come into effect on March 15. Additional uncertainty arises from the departure of U.S. Ambassador Christopher Hill on January 18, meaning that Belgrade will negotiate directly with Washington at a time when there is also a shift in the U.S. administration.
If Gazprom Neft rejects the settlement offer, Serbia would be faced with two options – a “hostile takeover” or nationalization. While Vučić currently dismisses such a scenario and insists on purchasing the Russian stake, even in the case of an agreement, the transaction would require approval from OFAC. Without it, transferring funds from Serbia to Russia could be interpreted as financing the war in Ukraine, which would further complicate the process.
Although the sanctions are aimed at weakening Russian influence in Serbia, Moscow could long-term assess that it is in its interest to cooperate and maintain its presence in the Serbian market. A potential conflict could destabilize Serbia, especially in the context of current internal unrest. In such a case, regime-controlled media could redirect the narrative, portraying Russia as the main culprit for the economic difficulties, further weakening its influence. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated settlement, where Russia would receive some compensation. This way, Serbia could take over NIS while maintaining strategic ties both with the West and with Russia.
Author: Nataša Stanojević
