Milorad Dodik Photo: DEMOKRATSKA STRANKA DS, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

This article was first published by Truthmeter.mk (North Macedonia), within the framework of Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Project.

The verdict against the President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, which sentences him to one year in prison and imposes a six-year ban on political activity, is being used as a threat to destabilize Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region, a narrative propagated by official Serbia, Hungary, and Russia. For Moscow it is a “politically motivated persecution,” and therefore ominously warns that “there will be catastrophic consequences for the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the entire region”

Author: Stojan Sinadinov

When in the early 1990s the breakup of the former Yugoslavia initiated the episode in Bosnia and Herzegovina, one of the warnings of the magnitude of its tragedy was synthesized in the updated line from Shakespeare’s “Hamlet”. The famous dilemma “To be, or not to be” became “BiH or not BiH”  (from “Biti ili ne biti” in Serbo-Croatian-Bosnian language).

Exactly 30 years after the signing of the Dayton Accords, which defined the current political-state situation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the president of one of its entities, Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, launched the echo of the Bosnian-Herzegovinian Hamlet—”BiH or not BiH.”

Dodik’s punishment—A punishment for all Serbs

Dodik accused the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina of having carried out a coup d’état in Republika Srpska, and therefore will not recognize its judicial and security instances. After the emergency session of the National Security Council of Serbia, Vucic flew to Banja Luka, boosting support for Dodik with the narrative that the verdict against him poses a threat to all Serbs. Subsequently, a special session of the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia has been called to address the situation in Republika Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The session is scheduled to last from March 14 to 16, and Dodik is expected to attend.

Vucic has been cleverly manipulating the Dodik case. In Serbia, he “framed” his problem with lawlessness as a threat to all Serbs in the region, hoping that it would at least somewhat buffer the pressure from student and civil protests for fundamental changes in terms of responsibility in Serbia, and on the other hand, he asked Dodik not to escalate the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and encouraged him to negotiate with the political factors in Bosnia and Herzegovina, involving the representatives of the EU, the USA, the Russian Federation, and China!

Of course, thanks from Banja Luka for Vucic’s move came swiftly, following the old principle „You scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours.“

Republika Srpska is proud that you reacted like never before in history, like no president of Serbia, nor anyone else, and that you came here despite the weather and the problems you have as president on international and every other level. This is very, very important for us. We understand the peacekeeping role that Serbia has. This is its policy in a regional sense, but it is also a policy to strengthen Serbia itself, Dodik pointed out.

The manipulation is essentially that the verdict against Dodik is being used as a threat to destabilize Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region, and in essence, Dodik will be able to avoid prison, because the sentence of up to one year can be replaced with a fine, i.e. Dodik will be able to buy the prison sentence for 36,000 BAM (about 18,600 euros). However, if the sentence becomes effective, the ban on political office remains: it is the greater punishment for Dodik.

While the US State Department welcomed the verdict against Dodik, spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated on social network X that the US firmly opposes any actions by local leaders that could undermine security and stability, reaffirming its support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Dayton Agreement. Surprisingly, former New York mayor and Donald Trump’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani has come out in support of Dodik.

In Eastern Europe, honesty and freedom are valued much more. Remember that Trump’s wife comes from Slovenia and he is very interested in this part of the world. “You have great leadership,” said Giuliani, who at the end of his speech wore a hat with the message: “Make Srpska Great Again,” said Giuliani at the rally in support of Dodik in Banja Luka.

 

On the other hand, Budapest and Moscow unexpectedly voiced opinions that were completely opposite to those of the United States. For Orbán, the verdict against Dodik is a political witch hunt, so on the social network X he wrote:

The political witch hunt against President Milorad Dodik is a sad example of the abuse of the judicial system against a democratically elected leader. If we want to preserve the stability of the Western Balkans, this is not the way.

 

Orbán (deliberately) sent around 300 Hungarian police specialists from the anti-terrorist unit to Republika Srpska for joint exercises with members of the RS Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Putin often met with Dodik. We greatly appreciate the confidential and constructive business relationship that has been built between Putin and Dodik. And, of course, we value our historic brotherly relations between the Russians and the Serbs.

Unfortunately, there are casualties and those who have lost their lives, but Russia should not have allowed NATO to put itself in a place from which Moscow and other parts could be threatened, especially after what Zbigniew Brzezinski said, to break up into a dozen separate states to control Russian resources, said Dodik at the the Solemn Saint Sava Academy.

It is interesting how Dodik fits into the transfer of left-wing, or at least social-democratic-minded politicians to the far-right bloc.

America and the new Europe are reaching out to this region, looking for partners to cooperate with, generate trade, create jobs and build mutual security. Our goal is to integrate the whole of South-Eastern Europe into the democratic flow of the continent and make the new century a time of growing prosperity and spreading peace. Prime Minister Milorad Dodik is a worthy partner in this effort. He wisely and skillfully led Republika Srpska through challenging and turbulent times. He works hard to develop the economic potential of this area. And he knows that for his people, implementing the Dayton Agreement is the only way to make the next decade more profitable than the last…

 

Who said this? It was said by former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who in 2000 said that the then prime minister of Republika Srpska was “a breath of fresh air in the Balkans”, N1 reminds, adding that Dodik is now on the US “blacklist” and faces a ban from holding political office.

Real politics has long been based on eternal interests instead of eternal love. Geopolitical confrontation, economic influence, and political interference are the ‘holy trinity’ of Russian policy towards the Western Balkans.

The Western Balkan countries have emerged as a frontline in Russia’s geopolitical confrontation with the West. While the Russian Federation has strong historical ties with the Western Balkans, and holds
a certain soft-power attraction for the region, its influence and economic impact there are declining.
Meanwhile, the EU and NATO presence in the region is advancing, and investment and aid from the
EU-27 and other players, such as China, have been dwarfing Russian investment. according to the summary of the European Parliament’s “Russia and the Western Balkans” report from April 2023.

 

Nevertheless, the damage that “small players” can cause, as well as the potential shift in their interests, should not be underestimated.