Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans
Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Risks of disinformation narratives amid U.S political transition
The Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub has detected the upcoming inauguration of the U.S. President Donald Trump, as a potential hotspot for Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) and disinformation campaigns. This political transition is expected to influence regional and national political events, amplifying anti-democratic informational ecosystems. Possible shifts in U.S. economic and security policies could further bolster anti-EU and anti-NATO narratives.
As a key geo-political actor on the Balkans, in recent years USA has been contributing to reducing tensions. For instance after the Banjska attack in 2023 the USA’s National security council played a significant role by declassifying information that led to prevention of further escalation. The possible shifts in the foreign policy and past experiences regarding the old “land swap” ideas or the strengthening of anti-democratic governance are just two directions which will be exploited by regional and eastern disinformation hubs to deploy disinformation campaigns which will sow fear and further polarization among citizens. The risks of FIMI fueling ethnic tensions, stability uncertainty or plainly enhancing channels for Russian and propaganda, seem to be very high.
Given the upcoming elections in Kosovo and Albania next year, the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub is expecting a surge of narratives delegitimizing the domestic and the Euro-Atlantic institutions and democratic processes, aiming at diminishing the trust of citizens. The possible shift in USA`s foreign and security policy will open the doors for strong anti-NATO narratives and disinformation campaigns over Ukraine war and Gaza, inciting fear of regional and global instability among citizens. Last but not least, remembering the 2020 Trump Presidency`s Western Balkan focus, narratives spread by nationalistic actors fueling further polarization and ethnic tensions over Kosovo-Serbia relations are more than anticipated.
Albania: May elections under threat of disinformation narratives delegitimizing institutions
The upcoming May elections and the impact of opposition leader Sali Berisha`s recent release from house arrest, are considered as possible threats regarding the Albanian information environment. Based on the opposition leader`s public statements, this decision from the Special court, was depicted as foreign interference. Messaging aimed at delegitimizing institutions, including unsubstantiated claims targeting the domestic judiciary and democratic processes, is expected to portray foreign powers as interfering. Such narratives could influence the electoral period, undermining citizens’ free will and eroding trust in democracy.
By taking into account the current statements made by the opposition party, falsely claiming foreign (or even more precise US) interference over Special court decisions, one has a glimpse over the future election campaigns that the parties will base upon their race. Although these political positioning by the opposition is enforcing the us vs. them and villains vs. heroes narratives, still the attack on the integrity of the judiciary is raising expectations over narratives aiming at harming the independence and legitimacy of the institutions, and by extension to the democratic processes as such – including elections. Such narratives will contribute to decreasing the trust of citizens and enhance anti-democracy disinformation campaigns.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Polarizing disinformation narratives about forthcoming unconstitutional Day of Republika Srpska (January 9)
Bosnia and Herzegovina`s information environment is expected to be affected by the upcoming January 9th, a date over disputed Day of Republika Srpska, which has been established twice by Republika Srpska Assembly and declared unconstitutional both times by the Constitutional Court. Its date and celebration is flaring disinformation campaigns that strongly polarize the BiH public, intensifying inter-ethnic divisions and promoting narratives that delegitimize institutions.
Given the long term unresolved disputes between entities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the complex political setting where different political elites in power are seeking opposite geopolitical developments of the country, disinformation campaigns often revolve around particular “disputed” events, used for devastation of constitutionality and authority of Bosnian institutions.
Day of Republika Srpska, firstly established through Law on Holidays of Republika Srpska in 2007, ruled as unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2015, again passed as a Law within the National Assembly of Republika Srpska and ruled as unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2019. Such turmoil constantly fueling citizens with fear of ethnic instability is fertile soil for antidemocratic hybrid activities.
Kosovo: Disinformation campaigns threat to undermine the electoral process in February elections
The upcoming February elections are in the center of Kosovo`s information environment. This was incited by the debate around the ban announcements of Serbian List party (Srpska lista) alongside international concerns about the impact of such a decision on tensions in northern Kosovo and ongoing reconciliation efforts. These type of developments, particularly during election campaigns, risk fueling narratives that delegitimize institutions and the electoral process, jeopardizing the country’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
Kosovo – Serbia unresolved tensions created a political climate in which every political strategy revolves around this topic in the centre of the discourse. Elections period is particularly vulnerable since political parties are centering their campaigns around the KOS-SRB relations driving further polarization within Kosovo both among Kosovars as well among the Kosovars and the Serbs. The election period is also of interest to Serbian and even Republika Srpska political elites, which complicates the already complex public discourse. Such events, like the debate around the possible ban announcements of the Serbian List, might serve as catalysator for disinformation campaigns aiming at razing to the ground the dialogue among citizens and political actors. The intense public discourse is set to even possibly flame potential demonstrations, driving the information environment into an identity battle and highlighting clashes over the future of the Serbian community in Kosovo. “Us vs. them” narratives are to be expected.
North Macedonia: Possible Anti-EU disinformation narratives fueling waste management plant protests
In North Macedonia`s information environment, an increase of disinformation narratives related to environmental issues are anticipated, for instance regarding the upcoming public procurement for a regional waste management plant in Sveti Nikole and the protests against it in Kochani. The issue has become a target of disinformation campaigns by pro-Russian party Levica, stirring fear among citizens and driving their refusal of the plant. Having into consideration that such waste management systems are EU requirements, further campaigns aiming at delegitimization of institutions and anti-EU narratives are to be expected.
The issue of waste management has been present in the public discourse for almost a decade, due to the ongoing pollution placing North Macedonia among the most polluted in Europe. Efforts for systematic solutions such as building regional waste management plants have been part of this as well as the previous central Government, however, the implementation of the solutions are dependent on the local governments, which is a motivation for antidemocratic actors to block these solutions. Disinformation campaigns openly placed by pro-Kremlin political party Levica, falsely claiming that the citizens are to be deceived and the Government will create dump rather than a plant, or that dangerous or medical waste will be burned in this plant is affecting na local citizens into protests against it. Such narratives are drivers for decreasing the trust of citizens in intuitions and anti-EU sentiments.
Serbia: Potential disinformation campaigns escalating Serbia-Kosovo relations amid President Trump’s inauguration
The period leading up to President Trump’s inauguration is expected to influence the Serbian information environment. This event is marked for its potential for disinformation campaigns aimed at escalating Serbia-Kosovo tensions, given President Trump’s past involvement in the dispute’s resolution. Anti-democratic narratives that could amplify anti-Albanian xenophobia and influence public sentiment are expected. This issue represents a major obstacle for furthering Euro-Atlantic integration for both Serbia and Kosovo as well as one of most important destabilizing factors in Western Balkans.
Within his 2020 Presidency, President Trump both personally and through envoys was dedicated to Western Balkans and the resolution of Serbia – Kosovo tensions. This issue represents a major obstacle for furthering Euro-Atlantic integration for both Serbia and Kosovo therefore is one of the most important destabilizing factors in Western Balkans. Possible return to the ideas for solutions, creates a perfect environment for placing disinformation campaigns by political elites working against euro-atlantic integration of Serbia. Anti-democracy narratives causing distrust and demoralization among citizens are to be anticipated.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
