Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during October 2025, identified during September 

Western Balkans Watch and Warn: 

Russia’s UNSC move on Bosnia and Herzegovina expected to fuel Anti-West narratives affecting the stability across the Western Balkans

The October 21 UN Security Council session on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), convened by Russia, is expected to shape narratives not only within BiH but across the wider Western Balkans. Anti-Western actors are likely to amplify disinformation that portrays state institutions as “occupiers” and frames NATO and the EU as threats to sovereignty.

This rhetoric is particularly sensitive in a region where three countries are NATO members, yet all six remain formally on the EU accession path. Such narratives risk undermining trust in Euro-Atlantic integration and weakening public support for democratic reforms. The spillover effect may be especially pronounced in Montenegro and North Macedonia, where anti-Western messaging already exploits internal divisions and widespread skepticism toward the EU. 

Region-wide amplification of anti-Western narratives and secessionist rhetoric could further polarize societies, inflame ethnic tensions, and give domestic elites an excuse to deflect attention from governance failures. This moment is therefore likely to be used not only to destabilize Bosnia and Herzegovina but also to erode the credibility of the EU enlargement process, deepen political cynicism, and cast NATO as an aggressor rather than a security provider. Anticipating these narratives and pre-emptively countering them is crucial to safeguarding stability, trust in institutions, and the region’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory.

Albania:  Intransparency and disinformation around “AI minister” erodes public distrust in institutions and EU reforms

Albania’s information environment has been unsettled by the new government’s controversial decision to appoint the world’s first “AI minister” as part of an anti-corruption policy in public procurement. While promoted as a groundbreaking measure, the lack of transparency over how the system will function in practice has created information gaps that disinformation quickly fills. Public procurement is a crucial area in EU accession negotiations (Chapter 5 of EU acquis). The European Commission has already clarified that while AI tools can support procurement processes, they cannot replace human oversight and accountability. Speculation about automated governance and unaccountability risks further eroding public trust in EU-driven reforms.

Both government and opposition actors are expected to influence public opinion through competing disinformation campaigns aimed at securing political advantage. Pro-government voices present the AI system as incorruptible and a guarantee of fair procurement, while the opposition frames it as a scandal designed to mask corruption and evade accountability. Partisan media outlets amplify these polarized narratives, leaving citizens caught in a fog of contradictory and unverified claims.

This environment of confusion risks not only delegitimizing institutions but also undermining public confidence in procurement reforms and, by extension, the broader EU accession process.

Bosnia and Herzegovina:  Republika Srpska`s referendum announcements and disinformation campaigns risk the country`s Euro-Atlantic perspective

All eyes in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) are on October 25, when Republika Srpska announced its referendum to keep deposed president Milorad Dodik in power. Adding to the tension, Russia will convene a UN Security Council session on BiH on October 31, during its rotating presidency. During September, Russia hosted Dodik with high officials and their embassy supporting his claims, condemning and threatening the West. The timing of these events is highly symbolic and creates fertile ground for disinformation campaigns. Narratives portraying Bosniaks as aligned with “Western occupiers” and Serbs as defenders of sovereignty are likely to intensify polarization, erode trust in democratic institutions, and undermine international partnerships. The broader objective is to delegitimize Bosnia and Herzegovina’s European path and deepen nationalist divisions.

Divisive narratives—claiming that Serbs are denied fundamental rights or that the EU and NATO are exploiting territorial control—are expected to dominate public discourse and entrench ethnic divides further. Anti-Western media outlets are likely to portray upcoming developments as evidence of Western destabilization, while legitimizing secessionist rhetoric as a justified response to alleged foreign interference. This information environment sets the stage for obstructing the renewal of the EUFOR mandate in November and for undermining the credibility of international institutions such as the EU, OHR, and EUFOR Althea. As a result, Bosnia risks stalled reforms, heightened vulnerability to external influence, and deepening internal instability.

Kosovo: Court ruling on Serb List appeal risks fueling disinformation, deepening polarization

Kosovo’s political environment has reached a point of high sensitivity due to the pending Constitutional Court ruling on the Serb List’s appeal regarding the election of Assembly deputy speakers. Public debate has been filled by open confrontation between state leaders and the judiciary, with both sides accusing one another of overreach, blockades, and political bias. As the September 30 deadline approaches, disinformation campaigns seeking to delegitimize the Court’s independence are expected to intensify. These narratives are expected to erode public confidence in the judiciary and portray Kosovo as incapable of upholding constitutional order.

If the Court rejects the Serb List’s appeal, manipulative narratives are anticipated to frame the decision as proof of systemic exclusion of Kosovo Serbs, reinforcing claims that Prishtina cannot be trusted to safeguard minority rights. In parallel, narratives highlighting alleged institutional dysfunction—suggesting that Kosovo’s government and parliament cannot manage even routine procedures—are likely to strengthen perceptions of political chaos. 

The cumulative effect of these campaigns would be to delegitimize Kosovo’s institutions and increase the country’s vulnerability to external influence at a critical moment in its Euro-Atlantic trajectory.

Montenegro: Anticipated disinformation targeting EU delays and further integration

Montenegro`s public discourse is expected to have intensified disinformation campaigns focusing on the country’s EU accession process, especially exploiting political disputes such as Croatia’s blockade to portray the EU as biased. Narratives will likely emphasize that any delay is deliberate with the goal to weaken Montenegro, joined by amplifying of nationalist backlash, thus eroding citizens’ confidence in democratic institutions. The end of the tourist season and upcoming economic challenges are expected to be weaponized for enhancing narratives for failure of EU integration, followed by environmental debates of foreign coastal investments.

Montenegro’s role in regional security remains high-value targets for hostile actors aiming to spread anti-Western sentiment. Narratives suggesting that NATO membership undermines national sovereignty or destabilizes the Balkans are expected to circulate, feeding political polarization and deepening mistrust in both domestic and international institutions. These campaigns aim not only to weaken support for Montenegro’s Euro-Atlantic orientation but also to influence the broader Western Balkans, where three countries are already NATO members. 

North Macedonia: Local elections create local disinformation fires

One month ahead of local elections, North Macedonia’s public discourse has—as anticipated—been dominated by inter-ethnic incidents and competing narratives around them. At the same time, a series of four major fires have broken out at waste sites in the Skopje area, including Vardarishte, Drisla ,the landfill in Shuto Orizari and the electronic waste storage near Trubarevo. These incidents caused severe pollution and quickly became politicized, with allegations blaming the opposition and counter-accusations targeting authorities for systemic failure to protect citizens.

Confusion deepened after the Prime Minister suggested the fires were the result of a “hybrid attack,” a claim that was publicly dismissed by the Minister of Interior—who later revised his statement. The conflicting messages created a climate of uncertainty and disinformation, leaving citizens caught in a “smoke screen” while facing the very real health impacts of pollution. This episode further undermines public trust in institutions and reinforces perceptions of government ineffectiveness.

Unclear communication from official services has fueled confusion and fear among citizens, amplifying conspiracy theories, and increasing ethnic tensions, as some officials publicly blame ethnic groups like Roma for the criminal activities. Combined with the ongoing pollution from landfill fires, this uncertainty risks deepening public distrust in institutions and creating space for malign influence to take hold. For now, the picture remains inconclusive. Experts  note that while the possibility of a hybrid attack cannot be dismissed, such claims require careful assessment. Arson and sabotage are known tactics within hybrid operations, but any conclusions must rest on verified evidence, and security services may hold additional information that could shed light on the origins and intentions behind the fires.

Serbia: Protests face disinformation campaigns portraying activists as foreign-backed destabilizers

As October 5 and November 1 approach—two dates of symbolic significance in Serbia—a new wave of mass protests has been announced. Pro-government media are expected to intensify disinformation campaigns aimed at delegitimizing civic mobilization. The symbolism of October 5, marking the fall of Slobodan Milošević, is likely to be exploited in messaging that frames protests as dangerous, extremist, or manipulated by foreign actors. The November 1 demonstration, commemorating the anniversary of ongoing student-led protests, is anticipated to be the largest to date. Faced with this growing momentum, the government may deploy disinformation narratives not only to stigmatize protesters, but also to justify repression and, potentially, to call early elections as a way to defuse civic pressure.

Disinformation is expected to continue to criminalize activists and depict students as “foreign agents,” reinforcing claims that protests are orchestrated by the West to destabilize Serbia. Pro-government tabloids and aligned political leaders are likely to act in coordination, amplifying conspiracy theories and anti-Western narratives within an echo chamber. By sowing fear and mistrust, such campaigns aim to weaken civic activism, discourage participation in demonstrations, and maintain political control. In doing so, these narratives undermine Serbia’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory by portraying European values such as democracy and accountability not as genuine domestic aspirations but as externally imposed threats.

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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.

The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.