Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during January 2026, identified during December 2025
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Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Ukraine War negotiations as a catalyst for anti-EU and anti-NATO narratives
Across the Western Balkans, ongoing talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine are serving as a catalyst for disinformation that intersects with domestic political tensions and debates over Euro-Atlantic integration. Russian disinformation operations have continued to serve as amplifiers for domestic anti-democratic actors, intentionally targeting the region’s information space by exploiting historical grievances, ethnic divisions, and institutional vulnerabilities. These efforts aim to sow doubt about EU accession in the context of the EU–Ukraine membership dialogue. This disinformation ecosystem is expected to continue to promote anti-EU narratives, portraying the EU and the USA as hypocritical and sacrificing Ukraine in order to prolong the war, or that Western influence aims to undermine local sovereignty and values. By exploiting longstanding EU accession fatigue in the Western Balkans and contrasting it with Ukraine’s perceived fast-tracked EU path, these narratives are expected to be recycled into domestic political debates, including elections and reform processes, thereby contributing to public confusion and declining trust in democratic institutions.
In this context, disinformation linked to the Ukraine conflict poses a significant risk to democratic stability and the Western Balkans’ Euro-Atlantic path. By blending war-related disinformation with local issues such as migration, constitutional crises, or legislative reforms, malign actors can paint the EU as hypocritical or destabilizing, and NATO as irrelevant or antagonistic, thereby undermining support for integration. The result is two-fold: fear and fatigue among citizens toward democratic participation and EU accession, and reinforced narratives that EU enlarges politically rather than based on merit, leaving the Western Balkans sidelined due to a lack of political will while Ukraine advances on a fast track. At a time when public trust in governance is fragile, these coordinated narratives weaken democratic norms, delay institutional reforms, and create openings for external influence that prioritizes geopolitical leverage over regional stability and inclusion in the Euro-Atlantic community.
Albania: Gender Equality Law disinformation risks undermining EU path
Albania’s information ecosystem is expected to become increasingly contested as the country begins implementing its new Gender Equality Law under the EU Integration Plan 2024–2026. Coordinated disinformation campaigns are likely to intensify, with early signals already pointing to the reuse of familiar narratives. These include misrepresenting “gender” as an imposed ideology, falsely linking the law to compulsory medical interventions and framing it as a threat to children, family values and national identity. These narratives are expected to be amplified through social media, influencer pages and sensationalist outlets, which often use manipulated legal interpretations, pseudo-medical claims and emotional storytelling. Similar to previous waves around vaccination, these messages exploit fear and sow confusion, particularly among parents and socially insecure groups, while portraying the law as an EU imposition rather than a legal reform aligned with Albania’s EU commitments.
The broader risk extends beyond disinformation itself to its cumulative impact on democratic resilience and European integration. By framing institutional processes as illegitimate and portraying reforms as externally imposed, these narratives weaken trust in public institutions, polarize society and create space for political manipulation. The spillover from regional culture-war narratives is expected to further amplify this dynamic, linking gender equality, public health, and identity politics into a single mobilizing threat. If left unchallenged, such campaigns risk undermining informed public debate, eroding confidence in governance, and slowing Albania’s EU path by turning social policy into a tool of ideological confrontation rather than democratic dialogue.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Republika Srpska Day likely to trigger disinformation narratives undermining regional stability
The marking of unconstitutional Republika Srpska Day on 9 January is likely to trigger a coordinated wave of disinformation reframing constitutional violations as acts of “identity defence.” Although such celebrations openly challenge decisions of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Constitutional Court and contradict EU and NATO principles, they are expected to be presented domestically as legitimate expressions of cultural and political autonomy. By portraying institutional accountability as foreign pressure, these narratives distort Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU accession process and reinforce perceptions of democratic backsliding, instability, and permanent crisis factors that directly weaken the country’s credibility in the Euro-Atlantic framework.
The expected disinformation will likely amplify fear, ethnic polarization and distrust in state institutions, portraying the EU and NATO as hostile actors while promoting anti-EU and anti-Muslim narratives. These messages, spread through entity-level media, politically aligned outlets and coordinated online networks, aim to normalize political stagnation and shift public expectations away from reform. By framing loyalty to entity leadership as protection against external threats, such campaigns reduce space for democratic debate and entrench governance based on fear rather than accountability. Over time, this dynamic strengthens regional destabilization efforts, aligns with broader Russian-influenced narratives in the Western Balkans, and weakens Bosnia and Herzegovina’s capacity to advance toward EU and NATO integration.
Kosovo: Election disinformation campaigns are likely to fuel post-election stability risks
The period following Kosovo’s extraordinary elections on 28 December represents a high-risk moment for democratic stability and the country’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory. While elections may renew political legitimacy, the real test lies in the swift formation of institutions, approval of the budget and restoration of functional governance. If post-election paralysis repeats the deadlock seen earlier in 2025, it will reinforce narratives that Kosovo is unable to govern effectively. Such stagnation weakens public trust, delays economic planning, and directly undermines Kosovo’s credibility with the European Union, particularly after missing opportunities such as the EU Growth Plan. From a Euro-Atlantic perspective, prolonged institutional paralysis signals fragility rather than resilience, raising concerns about Kosovo’s reliability as a democratic and security partner.
This moment is especially vulnerable to disinformation that frames political delays as proof of systemic failure, foreign manipulation, or democratic collapse. Narratives are likely to question the legitimacy of election results, exaggerate economic threats, and portray Kosovo as incapable of self-governance without external control. These claims, amplified through partisan networks, anonymous online pages, and regional disinformation ecosystems, aim to erode public confidence and normalize political dysfunction. By turning procedural delays into existential crises, such narratives weaken trust in institutions, deepen polarization, and undermine faith in democratic processes. If left unchallenged, they risk pushing Kosovo into prolonged instability damaging its Euro-Atlantic credibility and reinforcing perceptions that the country is trapped in a cycle of political uncertainty rather than progressing toward durable democratic governance.
Montenegro: Anticipated surges in anti-EU disinformation targeting EU Accession and NATO alignment
As Montenegro moves closer to concluding its EU accession negotiations having closed 12 out of 33 chapters and with optimistic projections pointing to EU membership by 2028 the information environment is expected to become increasingly polarized. France’s recent decision to block the temporary closure of two negotiation chapters was widely interpreted as a political “reality check,” but it also triggered a wave of disinformation and politically motivated framing. Political vetoes tied to merit, much like in North Macedonia`s case of 2018 are creating fertile ground for rise of Euroscepticism and are being used by anti-EU actors to further deepen the distrust in institutions and EU itself.
In Montenegro, anti-EU disinformation emerged following speech by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and his meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, framing the events as evidence that Montenegro’s EU progress is conditional on Serbia and falsely claiming that Podgorica would support Belgrade’s push for the entire Western Balkans to join the EU together. These narratives were amplified regionally through selective framing of Vučić’s statements on collective EU accession. Although Montenegro’s separate and accelerated EU path is official, Serbian tabloids misrepresented his response as support for Vučić’s proposal, creating a false perception of political alignment while casting the EU as inconsistent, politically biased and unwilling to reward merit-based progress. Serbia’s absence from the EU Western Balkans Summit and its non-alignment with the declaration were framed as EU exclusion, reinforcing anti-EU sentiment, victimhood narratives, and regional mistrust. Due to the similarity in language and framing, these narratives were replicated in Montenegrin media, amplifying disinformation across the region and blurring public understanding of the actual EU accession process.
North Macedonia: Migrant-related disinformation likely to continue polarizing public discourse
Public debate in North Macedonia is increasingly influenced by unverified claims alleging that the country will receive migrants transferred from the United Kingdom. Although these claims have been officially denied by the Government, they continue to circulate widely. Originating primarily from foreign media sources, the narratives have been amplified domestically through political statements, partisan media outlets, and social media platforms—often without confirmation from state institutions. This information vacuum enables speculation, fear-based narratives and the instrumentalization of migration for political gain. Similar patterns have appeared before, where misleading content and viral materials were used to redirect public frustration toward institutions or political opponents rather than address real policy challenges.
Migration-related disinformation narratives risk deepening polarization and normalizing hate speech toward migrants, portraying them as threats to security, identity, or social stability. Such disinformation is expected to increase public anxiety and distort democratic debate. In the absence of timely and credible institutional communication, misleading claims gain legitimacy and shape public perception. This weakens trust in governance, distracts from socio-economic issues, and allows political actors to exploit fear for short-term advantage, ultimately undermining social cohesion and democratic resilience in North Macedonia.
Serbia: 2026 Elections are foreseen as flash-point for disinformation surges delegitimizing the students
As Serbia approaches the 2026 general elections, the pre-election period is likely to become a focal point for political manipulation and disinformation. Past electoral cycles show that campaigns have often failed to meet democratic standards, with irregularities and media capture undermining public trust. This upcoming period is therefore not only an electoral test but also a measure of Serbia’s commitment to European democratic norms. Disinformation is expected to intensify around claims that students and young people are being financed or directed by Western actors to destabilize the country. Such narratives are designed to delegitimize civic engagement, especially youth activism, by framing it as foreign interference rather than a domestic democratic expression. This directly weakens trust in democratic participation and reinforces skepticism toward Serbia’s EU-oriented path.
The primary drivers of these narratives are pro-government tabloids and broadcasters closely aligned with the ruling elite, which shape public perception through repetition, emotional framing, and selective reporting. Their messaging will likely deepen polarization, foster distrust toward independent voices, and normalize the idea that democratic dissent equals national betrayal. Over time, such disinformation erodes confidence in institutions, discourages civic engagement, and sustains a political environment where corruption and abuse of power remain shielded from accountability. By portraying the West as manipulative and hostile, these narratives also align Serbia with broader regional geopolitical tensions, weakening public support for democratic standards and reinforcing a cycle of political stagnation rather than reform.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
