Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans
Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Serbia protests are expected to be misused for placing anti-Western disinformation narratives throughout the region
The Western Balkans Аnti-Disinformation Hub has identified the ongoing Serbian student protest as a flash point for disinformation campaigns across the whole region. Sub-narratives may vary from one country to another, from speculation and disinformation around the resignation of Serbia`s President Vučić in Albania and Kosovo, to disinformation on foreign powers interfering with Serbia`s sovereignty in Montenegro, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Serbia. Anti-Western disinformation is expected to permeate such narratives, with claims that “the West” is orchestrating the protests with the goal to dismantle the Government in Serbia, in line with Kremlin propaganda that presents pro-democracy movements as inauthentic creation of ‘foreign agents.’
The student protests began after the collapse of one part of the newly renovated bus station in Novi Sad where 15 persons were killed. Students demanded political responsibility and possible corruption sanctions. The initial response was violent, with ruling party-affiliated members attacking the protesters, including beatings with baseball bats, or even several of them were run over by cars. Protesters were arrested and reportedly spyware was installed on their phones while in custody. These acts caused more support for the protests, resulting in the resignation of Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević, and forming of a technical government.
However, the similarity of surnames of the PM Vučevič with the President Aleksandar Vučić, was used for disinformation claiming that the President resigned. This disinformation was noted mostly in Albania and Kosovo, exploited by media and political actors as a triumph. On the other hand in countries where Serbian language is more known (MKD, MNE, BiH and SRB), Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub members noted disinformation focused on the motives and organizers of the protesters. Such campaigns aim to delegitimize the protesters, portraying them as foreign agents, mercenaries, or instrumentalized by “the West.” Such claims originate in Serbia and spread in neighboring countries, and had been supported by statements of Kremlin officials.
This trend is likely to continue, depending on the outcome of political developments in Serbia, and is expected to branch in several directions of disinformation campaigns, with one join narrative attacking “the West” and accusing it for orchestrating the protest for destabilization of the Government of Serbia and/or affecting the rest of the governments in the region.
Albania: Ambiguity surrounding Kushner’s strategic investment partnership with the Government provides fertile ground for disinformation
The lack of public knowledge about the conditions and terms of granting strategic investor status to Jared Kushner by the Albanian Government is expected to create disinformation surges, targeting the integrity of the institutions. This lack of transparency can create fertile soil for anti-EU disinformation campaigns, in addition with government decision to prolong the strategic investment laws, which was already criticized by the European Commission (EC), as well as the construction of the luxury resort in a protected area, which was heavily criticized by environmental organizations. These disinformation campaigns are expected to be both targeting the national institutions’ lack of good governance, endangering the country`s EU path, and EU`s merit based approach on Albania.
The EU integration of Albania accelerated in December 2024 by opening five chapters for negotiations, therefore the Government actions are closely monitored both internally in the country and by EC. Any step endangering that process will be heavily criticized by the domestic pro-democratic voices, while it can be exploited by anti-democratic actors with disinformation attacking the moral or merit role of the EU-integration process.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Disinformation campaigns containing atrocities denial over the Markale massacres are expected around it`s 30th anniversary on February 5th
Bosnia and Herzegovina`s information environment is expected to be heavily affected in the period around February 5th by the upcoming 30th anniversary of the Markale massacres with disinformation campaigns based on denial of Republika Srpska`s responsibility for it. RS political entities and media continuously disregard the clear verdict of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia for the 1994 and 1995 massacres, while disrespect for the numerous victims fuels aggravation, intensifying inter-ethnic divisions and polarization among the citizens in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This year, disinformation flared annually around this date is expected to have higher intensity due to the anniversary.
This anniversary, very much like the others reminisces from the wars in the 1990ies, due to its polarizing nature is being exploited by anti-democratic actors for undermining any possibility of an open dialogue and democratic development, let alone reconciliation, preventing the society from healing and keeping it in constant distress. This political tendency, which is copied in the information environment as well, is harming the stability of the country and by spillover effect in the region as well.
Kosovo: Disinformation campaigns threat to undermine the electoral process in February elections 2.0
Political developments around parliamentary elections set for February 9th, continue to fuel tensions among political actors in Kosovo, fueling polarisation among Serbian parties, as well as between political parties representing Albanian and Serb communities.
While the Serbian parties (including the Srpska Lista, whose participation in the election was subject to controversy) are clashing for the votes and influence within the Serbian community, the strong and polarizing nationalistic language used in the rhetorical disputes between ruling Vetëvendosje and Srpska Lista is mobilizing both Serbian and Albanian communities, undermining ongoing reconciliation efforts.
The disinformation narratives are expected to vary from Serbia’s and Russia’s interference in the election process, to deliberately destabilizing Kosovo in order to preserve political influence and power. Future possible clashes and protests among the communities are at risk for fueling narratives that delegitimize institutions and the electoral process, jeopardizing the country’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
Having clear, democratic, peaceful and recognized elections in Kosovo is one of the stepping stones that might positively affect the EU-backed dialogue for settling of Kosovo-Serbia relations. That is why Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub monitoring has noted that disruption of the electoral process is a major risk of vulnerability that might be exploited by antidemocratic actors with anti-EU disinformation campaigns to keep the status quo or weaken the democratic dialogue.
North Macedonia: Goce Delchev’s birthday on February 4th is anticipated to stir Anti-EU disinformation narratives
Information environment in North Macedonia is expected to be affected around February 4th – the anniversary of the birth of Mаcedonian revolutionary Goce Delchev, officially commemorated by the Macedonian Government through annual ceremonies. As the identity of this historical figure has been a key issue in the Bulgarian-Macedonian dispute, anniversaries related to his birth and death have annually been used for enhancing nationalistic rhetoric and further polarization in the two countries, therefore deeping the blockage of EU-integration for North Macedonia, vetoed by Bulgaria.
For several years populist politicians in both countries exploit the dispute, the historical controversies and commemorative events to endear themselves to voters. Pro-Russian proxies and nationalistic forces are expected to exploit this vulnerability, via disinformation campaigns aimed to delegitimize state institutions and the EU integration process, blaming a political rather than merit-based approach.
Serbia: USA‘s sanctions for NIS kicking in are expected to kick-off anti-west disinformation
Alongside the disinformation about ongoing anti corruption protests, expected start of the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s sanctions against Serbian based energy company NIS (Naftna Industrija Srbije), is expected to affect the information environment.
This will be a major political event for Serbia, both in political and economical sense, as NIS was sold to Russian state-owned GAZPROM Neft back in 2009 as a part of wider political deal which includes Russian protection of Serbia’s territorial integrity and Kremlin support for keeping Kosovo within Serbia. Disinformation campaigns aiming at delegitimization of USA’s institutions as well as strong enhancement of “heroes vs villains” and victimisation narratives are expected to intensify.
Perceptions of Serbia’s geopolitical relationships with Russia and USA are a major part of narratives affecting deeply rooted beliefs of the Serbian citizens. In that sense, any political step taken will be weaponized toward confirmation of those beliefs, regardless if the steps are self-inflicted. For this reason the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub monitoring considers the activation of the USA sanctions scheduled for March 15th a major flashpoint in that regard.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
