Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans

Western Balkans Watch and Warn: The “new normal” wave of disinformation is expected to overflow the region

During February 2025, the Western Balkans Аnti-Disinformation Hub identified possible risks of upcoming disinformation campaigns concerning the region during March. The geopolitical turbulence related to changing US foreign policy (especially vis a vis Ukraine, Europe and the Balkans) and freeze of US foreign aid has significant impact on the regional security and stability, reflecting in the public discourse of the six countries. As communications from the White House and US State Department intensifies within the upcoming period, waves of disinformation on their foreign policy and how they will affect the region are expected to intensify. Such disinformation can be used as an excuse for antidemocratic actions, such as Serbia’s Government using the new USAID policies as an excuse to use state apparatus to pressure civil society organizations, intensifying political witch-hunt framed in heroes vs. villains and traitors vs. patriots narratives.

As ambiguous information is coming from the US administration on the future of foreign aid, Balkan domestic actors have been very active in spreading misinformation in support of conspiracy theories for misuse of the foreign aid. These antidemocratic disinformation narratives have been present in all six countries for decades, often weaponized and misused for delegitimization of civil society and basically any type of criticism towards autocratic Governments. With political winds changing directions globally, many of these old disinformation narratives have been recycled and upgraded with “new normal” prism. This “new normal” disinformation prism is used for creating tensions and fear for the uncertainties around the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the new policies that will influence the Balkans.

Albania: Debunked disinformation for 100 000 Palestinian refugees in Albania can be weaponized for further polarization of the society 

Polarising discourse is expected to surge in Albania this spring, particularly due to the parliamentary elections scheduled for May. A recent issue that can continue to be a hot flash for disinformation, is the news coming from an Israeli journalist, claiming that Albania will host 100.000 Palestinian refugees coming from Gaza. Although this information was explicitly debunked from Prime minister Edi Rama, narratives surrounding this claim continue to multiply, as US President Trump continues to comment that he hasn’t ruled out Albania as a potential host country for displaced Palestinians from Gaza. These comments are picked up from the opposition leader Berisha, and are further flooding the information environment, shaping the discourse. 

Having past experience and fresh memories with accepting 1900 ex-Arshaf Iranians in 2016, and Afghan refugees after the Taliban take-over in 2021, Albania has been a target to anti-migrant disinformation, often used for polarization of the citizens. As elections are coming up this spring, disinformation about refugees in Albania is expected to be used for fueling public fear, deepening societal divisions, and undermining trust in institutions. These narratives can influence through manipulation of the public perception and political decision-making, and harm the democratic elections.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: March 1st – Independence day of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a kick-starter for polarizing disinformation surges

Ongoing disinformation campaigns affecting Bosnia and Herzegovina`s information environment fuel polarization, aiming to deepen the divides between its citizens. This environment is weaponized as a strong anti-West and anti-EU tool, exploiting every possible topic of discussion for increasing divisive tension. Disinformation around the Indepence day of Bosnia and Herzegovina (March 1) is such a topic, with high risk of dissemination of claims disputing its constitutionality, especially in the context of the recent verdict of Serb entity president Milorad Dodik. His ongoing statements disputing the constitutionality of the courts trickle down in media and social media, wrapped around strong anti-western and anti-EU narratives. 

Polarizing disinformation campaigns about the Independence Day of Bosnia and Herzegovina have undermined the foundation of trust and cooperation which are essential for democratic governance in the last decades (examples from 2022, 2023). When disinformation campaigns spread false or exaggerated narratives about the legitimacy or unity of the state, they create division among citizens, erode public trust in institutions, and fuel political instability. This fragmentation fosters an environment where extremist ideologies can thrive, weakening the ability of democratic processes to function effectively, as well as Euroscepticism is on the rise, affecting citizens’ trust in the EU. 

Kosovo: Untruthful claims for Kosovo`s involvement in Serbian protests will be central for disinformation campaigns in the upcoming period

Recent political developments in Serbia have been accompanied by a wave of disinformation, with both Serbian and Russian officials falsely accusing Kosovo of instigating protests and unrest within Serbia. Although no credible evidence supports these accusations, it is suspected that disinformation narratives including claims of foreign interference will continue as part of broader effort to deflect responsibility from Serbia’s internal governance challenges. Media promotion of unverified statements by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić appears to be a continuation of Serbia’s long standing strategy narrative of portraying Kosovo as a constant threat to its stability, further complicating the normalization process and dialogue between the two countries. Disinformation undermines the credibility of independent journalism and fosters mistrust among the Serbian community in Kosovo. These narratives also complicate efforts by the European Union and NATO to promote stability and cooperation in the Western Balkans.

By portraying Kosovo as a threat to its sovereignty and framing it as bent on destroying Serbia, the disinformation narratives are producing profound negative effects on both Kosovo’s development and regional stability in Western Balkans. This harmful narrative not only hinders Kosovo’s chance to gain international recognition but also fuels internal divisions and polarization within the country. More importantly, this undermines all western efforts for dialogue and peaceful initiatives. 

Read more about this at: 

• Vucic, without evidence, implicates news agencies from Kosovo and Croatia as instigators of the protests in Serbia 
• It is falsely claimed that Kosovo is supporting the “Destructors of Serbia” 
• Petkovic’s unfounded claims about Kosovo and the protests in Novi Sad 
• Russia dramatizes the situation of Serbs in Kosovo, claiming without evidence that they are being expelled with the West’s approval
• Russian Officials Intensify Disinformation Campaigns Against Kosovo

Montenegro:  Local elections in Nikšić in April are in the spotlight as expected hot-spot for disinformation campaigns 

The Montenegro public discourse is expected to heat up as local elections in Nikšić are approaching in April. Participants in the race for local government include parties with opposite geo-political campaign statements, so it is expected that the political campaigns have anti-West, anti-EU disinformation narratives. Pro-Serbian disinformation efforts undermining the legitimacy of the elections, from undermining the legitimacy of the Government institutions, including debunked claims about switching off power on election day, as well as delegitimizing political parties running in the race, have been already noted and are expected to intensify and expand. 

The local elections in Nikšić are becoming a battleground for parties with opposing ideologies, some pro-western and pro-EU, and other anti-western and pro-Serbian due to the natural historical and cultural ties to Serbia. This deep polarization is influencing public opinion particularly in the Euro-Atlantic context. The disinformation narratives, often amplified by external actors, exploit the polarization in an attempt to sway voters by fueling nationalist sentiments, undermining trust in democratic institutions, as well as create doubts on election integrity on the process itself.

North Macedonia: Anti-gender disinformation campaigns will continue to follow and affect the education reforms in public discourse

Strong anti-gender equality disinformation narratives flood North Macedonia`s information environment, targeting educational reforms attacking both the Government and the opposition simultaneously. Most visible actors engaged in this campaign are civil society organizations and groups that present themselves as independent or non-state affiliated, while they maintain strong ties with fringe far-right parties aligned with Russian interests. Focused primarily on anti-gender and traditional vs. woke culture narratives, this disinformation campaign uses strong hate speech and is supported by online media, social media troll factories and influencers. Considering that ongoing developments of educational reforms will lead to intensified public debate about adoption of relevant laws, new surges of disinformation can be expected. 

Anti-gender disinformation significantly is affecting social cohesion and social trust. Through these disinformation campaigns regarding the gender policies—often portraying them as foreign impositions or threats to traditional values—they create division and fear among the public, making any reform impossible to be accepted by citizens. It undermines the ability of both Government and opposition to engage in constructive dialogue and foster further polarization, where citizens become more distrustful.

Serbia: Current protests and witch-hunt against CSOs setting the stage for disinformation campaigns towards possible early elections in May

Serbia`s public discourse has intensified in the past months, due to expansion of the ongoing student protests demanding responsibility for the tragedy of Novi Sad railway station canopy collapse, that resulted in the death of 15 people. The public pressure led to the resignation of the Prime Minister Miloš Vučević, and the Government is now under pressure to either establish a new cabinet within 30-40 days, or call for early elections. The Government launched disinformation campaigns against protesters and CSOs, promoting narratives of “traitors vs. victims” and  “foreign powers taking down the government” in an attempt to delegitimize the protests. In addition and in line with new US administration communications, connections to USAID funds had been used as an excuse by the state apparatus for pressuring the CSOs. In these circumstances, disinformation campaigns continuing the narratives are expected as means for setting the stage both for possible early elections or groundwork for the newly formed Government.

Serbia`s public discourse is fueling a highly charged political and social environment due to the protests and government instability.  In this context, disinformation narratives have been weaponized by the state-affiliated media to discredit the protesters and civil society organizations (CSOs), framing them as “traitors” or puppets to “foreign powers” destabilizing the country. These tactics are often used for defocus of the public opinion and delegitimization of the pressure, while the government is trying to handle the crisis. 

Read more

• Analysis of the News: „Why is Berlin interfering in our election process“;
• Analysis of the News: “Russia’s first reaction to the riots in front of the Belgrade Assembly”
• Analysis of the Narrative: “New Maidan” – the response of local authorities and official Moscow to accusations of election irregularities in Serbia

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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.

The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.