Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans identified during March 2025
Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Demands for accountability in tragic Balkan events are expected to initiate more disinformation campaigns covering dysfunctional corrupt systems
In the wake of recent tragedies the public discourse in Western Balkans is affected by information manipulation, exploiting the lack of transparency and accountability. Several tragic events unveiling systemic corruption were hot-points for disinformation campaigns aimed to exonerate the authorities from responsibility. Novi Sad Railway Station canopy collapse in Serbia resulting in 17 dead, Kočani nightclub fire in North Macedonia resulting in 59 dead, Cetinje shooting in Montenegro resulting in 10 dead, fatal teenage stabbing in Tirana (blamed on TikTok resulting in ban of the social network), quarry landslide in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) resulting in 27 dead, all revealed disfunctional or corrupt system that enabled the tragedies, followed by aggressive disinformation campaigns.
Regardless of the reasons behind these campaigns, their very existence is a clear indication of lack of systemic societal response to disinformation, contrary to the obligations of the countries to build mechanisms to increase the societal resilience which is an obligation within the EU integration process. In the current information environment, this trend is expected to continue, amplified by those local actors that had been serving as FIMI proxies, as a way to increase discord and trust in the democratic institutions and the West. The Serbian government has asked the Russian Secret Service for help against the student protests, while in North Macedonia a smear campaign to undermine the protests for accountability attempts to link them with Serbian movement, portraying both as orchestrated and criminal, reiterating rhetoric of Kremlin origin about ‘color revolutions.’ Macedonian authorities have been arresting Serbian citizens at the border, blaming them as exporters of instability.
These incidents have underscored widespread problems such as corruption, lax safety standards, and mismanagement. However, instead of encouraging accountability, reform and transparency, voices emerged attempting to divert blame from the authorities, instigating various manipulations. Consequently, the application of the same disinformation strategies can be anticipated in upcoming catastrophes to conceal government responsibility. These may include downplaying casualty figures, attributing catastrophes to uncontrollable incidents rather than negligence, or diverting blame to extraneous entities. Such campaigns impede justice for the victims and hinder necessary institutional reforms by misleading the public and lowering pressure on the government to implement change. Since the region continues to grapple with those challenges, increasing media literacy and support for independent investigative journalism will be crucial in refuting disinformation and not letting government accountability be compromised in the wake of such tragedies.
Regional media and social media are also affected by more disinformation related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and related negotiations, alongside media manipulations related to statements and acts of the new US administration.
Albania: Special prosecution`s Veliaj case is expected to create disinformation cross-fire, aimed at delegitimizing the justice system
As May parliamentary elections are approaching, divisive and polarizing issues are likely to become more frequent in the Albanian public discourse. One of the most recent examples is the upcoming Supreme Court decision on the security measures for the Tirana Mayor Erion Veliaj. Information manipulation by different political actors seeking to tilt public opinion against the justice system is expected. The opposition is expected to continue its narrative about being captured by the government which attacks the opposition to implement George Soros’s agenda. These polarizing contradicting narratives aim to destroy the citizens’ belief in the justice system and specifically in the Special Prosecutors Office (SPAK), which according to recent polls is currently the most trusted institution in Albania.
In the event of a confirmation of Veliaj‘s detention, government-aligned narratives may attempt to delegitimize SPAK by politicizing the prosecution, undermining trust in judicial independence. Alternatively, in case the court renders a verdict in favor of house arrest, this would encourage the opposition’s narrative that the government is interfering in the judiciary as a tool for the defense of high-level corruption. Both would risk being manipulated to annihilate public trust in the ongoing reform of the justice system and in Albania‘s European integration.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Disinformation campaigns delegitimizing Bosnian judiciary are expected amid arrest warrants for RS leadership
As arrest warrants for the Republika Srpska (RS) leadership are issued, a frenzy of disinformation campaigns are expected be initiated, primarily against the legitimacy of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s judicial authorities. The dominant narratives will attempt to delegitimize the BiH Prosecutor’s Office, the Court of BiH, and the Constitutional Court by portraying them as “unconstitutional” or under foreign influence. These narratives are aimed at creating doubt about BiH‘s constitutional order, eroding public confidence in state institutions and promoting political polarization.
These claims, instigated by RS government officials, coalition parties, state media and allied pundits, seek to characterize the legal process as being politically driven, not based on the rule of law. Antidemocratic narratives are expected to be on the rise, in order to delegitimize Western democratic values and grant legitimacy to antidemocratic tendencies, through promoting public discontent these messages aim to demobilize institutional accountability and reform support. Narratives portraying legal sanctions as political repression, as well as the RS leadership as heroic defenders of Serb interests against a purportedly Western-enforced system aiming at shielding principal figures from accountability can be expected to dominate the public discourse.
Kosovo: Elections aftermath is likely to surge polarizing disinformation and ethnic tensions over possible government coalitions
In the aftermath of Kosovo‘s parliamentary elections, more disinformation is expected from political actors aiming to shape public perception regarding the coalition-forming process. As incumbent Vetevendosje (LVV) failed to win full majority, contradicting narratives of the Government and the opposition lead to further polarisation of the public discourse. The opposition`s refusal to join the government coalition is expected to be portrayed as anti-reformist, while the government’s approach to smaller parties with less seats is expected to be portrayed as coercive. Excluding the Serbian List (Srpska Lista) from the negotiations is expected to fuel ethnic tensions on the base of marginalisation of minorities.
The potential harmful narratives would include portraying coalition negotiations as improper political maneuvering or as a deliberate delaying of governance. Government-friendly voices could frame opposition parties’ refusal to negotiate as an anti-reformist blockade, while opposition leaders could lead the charge on assertions that LVV‘s overtures to minority representatives are coercive or undemocratic. Further, the denial of a seat at the negotiating table to the Serbian List could be distorted as a broader marginalization of Kosovo’s Serbs, potentially further inflating ethnic tensions. Disinformation would also distort procedural aspects, including the President’s involvement in the formation of government, exaggerating or downplaying their constitutional role in molding the process. Under conditions of political instability that is continuously fueled by Russian negation of Kosovo independence, institutional legitimacy narratives crafted to undermine it, generate instability, and intensify social cleavages are most likely.
Montenegro: Post election coalitions disinformation campaigns are expected to serve as tools for swaying voters in local elections
While Montenegro’s opposition and governing coalition prepare for local elections in Nikšić on April 13, their shared commitment to EU membership could be undermined by deeply ingrained political differences. Although all of them make public statements supporting European integration, history shows that the agreement made could quickly become a battleground for point-scoring by parties. Disinformation campaigns could appear on either side of the conflict, pro-government and pro-opposition social media voices promoting stories claiming the other camp has betrayed the agreement. Anonymous social media accounts have shared disinformation regarding allegedly agreed post-election coalition with a photoshopped picture, which is a clear indication that it might re-occur as elections are approaching.
Their strategy is likely to be a promotion of a distorted view of current events, simplifying complex political processes into crude “hero vs. villain” confrontations. By framing their own agenda as the sole guardian of Montenegro‘s EU path and the opposition as holding it back, political players try to sway public opinion and consolidate their voter base.
This strategy most particularly targets vulnerable groups such as elderly citizens and nationally biased voters, who can most readily be swayed by emotional appeals. The lack of advanced political discourse has the capability to mislead citizens, and it becomes harder for the people to make logical choices on their rulers. As anger at the slow EU accession of Montenegro grows, there is a real danger that popular discontent will be politicized and used to delegitimize democratic processes. If Montenegro does not advance toward membership, disillusionment will spread across the region, further eroding confidence in European integration. In such an event, disinformation is used as a political tool—not for citizen informing and mobilization but for employing citizens in the purpose of perpetuating cleavages instead of advancing real progress.
North Macedonia: Aftermath of Kočani nightclub fire and resulting protests are likely to initiate new witch-hunt disinformation campaigns targeting civil society
The Kočani nightclub fire disaster, which claimed 59 lives, has unleashed a wave of public outrage in North Macedonia, with demonstrators taking to city centers to honor the victims and demand change of the system. Several different movements mobilized a large number of citizens, expressing grief and outrage, seeking an end to entrenched corruption and complacency. These protests, however, have already begun to be manipulated by disinformation campaigns, with different media labeling them as a conspiracy to trigger a “new Colorful Revolution.” Worrisome targeting of journalists and civil society is expected to continue, in an attempt to deflect from institutional accountability with witch-hunts and scapegoating, and suppress professional reporting via censorship and self-censorship.
Smear campaign targeting student protesters whose involvement has been questioned based on their background or their families has been launched in an attempt to delegitimize the protests. Meanwhile, Serbian students who had arrived to participate in the protests were detained at the border, fueling further speculation over political interference. In the upcoming period, disinformation will rise to project the demonstrations as a foreign manipulation and not a genuine call for accountability. The NGO sector will likely be portrayed as a mastermind, since stories of foreign-backed destabilization are perpetuated. This approach copies past efforts at deflecting attention from government responsibility by situating civil society as a threat. Such efforts not only seek to discredit the movement but also seek to discourage wider mobilization by branding protesters as radicals, further polarizing society and making effective reforms difficult.
Serbia: National Students Day – April 4th should be watched as hotpoint for disinformation flux delegitimizing the ongoing student protest
As the student protests in Serbia escalate and become less centralized, disinformation is going to play a leading role in shaping public opinion and justifying government actions. A prevailing narrative is expected to portray student protesters as violent instigators, exaggerating or fabricating incidents to delegitimize protesters’ demands and justify a more violent crackdown. Simultaneously, familiar anti-Western narratives can be expected to re-emerge, including accusations that the protests are foreign-orchestrated in a bid to stage a “color revolution” or destabilize Serbia. These narratives aim to delegitimize the protests, demobilize popular engagement, and reassert entrenched skepticism of European institutions.
Disinformation can also manipulate the purpose of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) probe into EU fund abuse, either minimizing its importance or presenting it as foreign interference. Furthermore, attempts at disconnecting the protests from Serbia‘s EU integration path may be anticipated, despite the fact that the students’ demands are directly linked to institutional accountability and democratic reforms.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
