Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans identified during April 2025
Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Upcoming May 9 celebrations will trigger anti-EU disinformation campaigns aiming at further polarization of the region
The annual May 9 celebrations of Europe Day and Victory Day (also known as Victory in Europe Day) in the Western Balkans are increasingly susceptible to disinformation campaigns exploiting historical sensitivities and geopolitical fault lines. All six countries in the region face anti-European Union (EU) narratives, weaponized to promote disunity and support for Russian war effort. As during previous years, pro-Russian outlets and local stakeholders with similar stakes continue promotion of narratives glorifying Soviet role during World War II, while discrediting the role of the Western Allies during post-war reconstruction and integration, especially through EU framework. These manipulative disinformation-filled narratives distort the historical facts aiming at eroding public trust in EU institutions, thus frustrating the region’s aspirations for EU integration and strongly polarizing the affected societies.
This type of propaganda also aims to marginalize the reflections of current aggression by Russia against Ukraine and other countries. Furthermore, these disinformation and manipulation campaigns tend to employ emotionally charged content and identity-based rhetoric, further polarizing societies. By framing May 9 commemorations within ethnic-nationalist or anti-West/anti-EU context, disinformation spreaders seek to divide communities and destabilize the fragile social cohesion. This is particularly effective in the Western Balkans, where historical grievances and ethnic tensions remain salient, due to lack of systemic policies for reconciliation.
Albania: Smear campaigns and disinformation expected, aiming to increase voter distrust and apathy ahead of elections
As Albania approaches the parliamentary elections in May, disinformation campaigns that erode the credibility of the free and democratic elections affect the public discourse. Both the ruling and opposition parties have been accused of spreading disinformation and engaging in smear campaigns against each other, including using AI-generated content and manipulated videos to mislead voters. Additionally, organized campaigns with fake social media profiles and biased media sources disseminate disinformation. As a result, citizens find it challenging to distinguish between fact and propaganda. This information environment encourages distrust, driving citizens to either accept false information as true or become so suspicious and disbelieve correct information outright, therefore to become unmotivated to participate in the elections.
The increase of disinformation undermines citizens’ trust in the electoral process but also poses a direct threat to Albania’s negotiations with the European Union. The flood of fast-spread contents, which can`t be fact-checked quickly, creates fertile ground for disinformation and false narratives, increasing the distrust of citizens towards media and the political establishment. Furthermore, this affects the upcoming elections decision making of the citizens whose media and digital literacy skills are poor, exposing them to harmful narratives without any possibility to access verified information.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Disinformation campaigns weaponizing celebrations of Europe Day and Victory Day affecting cohesion and reconciliation
The announced attendance of Milorad Dodik, President of entity Republika Srpska (RS), at the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9, 2025, has been identified as a flashpoint for potential disinformation campaigns within Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The commemoration of the Soviet Union`s victory in WWII has been weaponized for propagating anti-EU narratives and undermining BiH`s Euro-Atlantic integration, both by pro-Russian and Serbian state-affiliated media. During previous years, with disinformation campaigns by media affiliated with Dodik government promoted such narratives, disseminating content that questions the legitimacy of BiH state institutions, whereas the participation of RS leadership to Moscow`s celebrations was portrayed as legitimate diplomatic engagement, downplaying their alignment amid ongoing war in Ukraine. This creates further divisions, affecting the country’s cohesion, as it openly contributes to pro-secessionist narratives that portray RS as an autonomous entity with a different foreign policy than the rest of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Moreover, having a separate Europe Day celebration in the entity of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Victory Day celebration in Republika Srpska is creating fertile ground for disinformation campaigns that will deepen ethnic and political polarization among the BIH citizens. These campaigns are expected to frame Federation`s alignment with European values as a betrayal of historical heritage on one side, and depict participation in Moscow`s celebration as reaffirmation of traditional alliances. These campaigns also risk entrenching “hero vs. villain” narratives, antagonizing different opinions in the public discourse, therefore hindering national reconciliation efforts, as well as posing a threat to BiH`s aspirations for European Union membership due to seemingly internal disunity.
Kosovo: Political crisis due to inability to form a Government creates environment for future disinformation campaigns attacking trust in democracy
Institutional crisis and ongoing political deadlock continues in Kosovo, amid the failure to elect a new Speaker of the Assembly, which is precondition for forming a new Government. This political climate creates an environment for disinformation campaigns undermining both institutional legitimacy as well as Kosovo`s Euro-Atlantic path, since political vacuum prevents meaningful reform from moving forward. Domestic political actors, foreign state-backed media, click-bait portals and social media influencers are expected to exploit the institutional vulnerability, likely through spreading false narratives hinting potential secret deals among Vetëvendosje and other parliament parties, including minorities’ parties related to Serbia. Likely disinformation campaigns portraying Kosovo as a “failed state” under foreign control can be initiated for political advantage by different sides struggling for power. These narratives increase the risk of confusion among citizens about the political steps for resolving the crisis, deepening the distrust into democratic institutions, which leads to deepening ethnic divisions, particularly in the North of Kosovo.
These campaigns, highlighting the political crisis, go hand in hand with disinformation about Kosovo’s foreign and security policy, such as recent defense partnership with Albania and Croatia. Together they aim to strategically weaken Kosovo’s position and its integration into EU and NATO, by portraying it as perpetually unstable and divided, lacking capacity to self-govern. Furthermore, this is rapidly increasing the risk of citizens disengaging from democratic participation including elections, as well as not participating in the public discourse when politics are involved.
Montenegro: Non-transparent government decision on UAE investments casts shadow over environmental harm, opening space for disinformation campaigns
The Montenegrin information environment has been flooded with news on the Government’s deal with United Arab Emirates (UAE) for over 10 beach concessions in Ulcinj, worth 35 billion euros. Pro-government media sources claim that this deal is a major economic breakthrough, portraying the investors as heroes saving the Riviera, while portraying critics as a destructive villains and enemies of progress. The non-transparent process of signing the deal, without public debate and space to acknowledge the criticism, raises fears among citizens of large-scale corruption, potential environmental damage as well as potential setbacks to Montenegro’s EU accession. This hostile information environment setup is opening the space for disinformation campaigns attacking the people and organizations expressing environmental concerns or corruption fears, and depicting them as malign.
These disinformation campaigns are expected to defocus the attention of the public and mask the risks of environmental destruction and political corruption, with the goal of achieving consolidated power among elites. Potentially, Montenegro risks derailing from EU accession by endangering the reforms and the country’s progress and fostering a political climate where critical voices are marginalized.
North Macedonia: Deflecting accountability for Kočani nightclub fire expected to continue via disinformation aimed at delegitimizing critics
The public discourse in North Macedonia is still shaken by Kočani nightclub fire of April 16, as number of fatalities increased to 62 after more burning victims passed out during treatment. Authorities conduct a wide-ranging investigation aimed at uncovering responsibility. Despite the scale of the tragedy, and the mounting evidence of regulatory failures, no resignations have come from high-ranking state officials, leaving the Kočani mayor’s resignation as only case of political accountability. Continuous efforts to discourage protests demanding justice include of disinformation muddying the facts and shifting blame and intimidation that further erodes public trust.
Distortion of facts includes reframing of the tragedy along ethnic lines— increasing polarization within already fragile national atmosphere. Instead of clarity and accountability, the tragedy has become fertile ground for political manipulation and confusion. More disinformation can be expected as the investigation develops, particularly in defocusing the critical voices demanding accountability by the Government.
These developments reignited scrutiny over how the Macedonian Parliament and key institutions have responded to past tragedies, drawing uncomfortable parallels. Citizens, journalists, and independent platforms have continued to document and question every step of the investigation, despite growing pushback. Among them, students had emerged as some of the most vocal critics — raising their voices against institutional neglect and demanding justice. Despite facing repeated accusations of politicizing their gatherings, they remained committed to speaking out. Even in the face of coordinated disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining their credibility and confusing the public — including false announcements about canceled protests.
Serbia: New wave of disinformation campaigns expected, aimed at delegitimizing critics demanding accountability after forming of new government
Serbian public discourse has been turbulent for a longer period of time due to lack of institutional independence and accountability, which peaked after the fall of the canopy Novi Sad train station. The killing of 16 people in November 2024 sparked student protests all over the country. Prime Minister Miloš Vučević resigned in January 2025, which led to forming of a new Government led by PM Đuro Macut in April.
However, key ministers from previous cabinet remained in the same positions and continued with the same approach of denial of responsibility by state institutions, hindering any possibility of accountability for the tragedy. This poses a great risk both for deepening the socio-political crisis and for intensifying the disinformation campaigns aimed at denying legitimacy of the protests, via ad hominem attacks against individuals, students, academics and civil society organizations, portraying them as foreign-backed threats to stability. Meanwhile pro-government media continue to promote pro-Russian propaganda.
These well narrated disinformation campaigns aim at protecting the ruling party, while depicting democracy as inherently flawed. Paired with lack of access to verified information, they affect vulnerable citizens with lower media and digital literacy. This particular setting along with potential breaches of democracy and human rights is derailing Serbia from its EU path of democratic reforms and progress. Given the context of protest via blockade of universities and school boycotts, smear and disinformation campaigns can be expected to intensify in September, as the new school year should begin.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
