Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during June 2025, identified during May
Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Anticipated disinformation campaigns targeting NATO’ unity ahead of the Summit in The Hague
The 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, scheduled from 24 to 26 June, has been identified as a focal point for disinformation campaigns in the Western Balkans. The ongoing global geopolitical instability and having three of the six Western Balkan countries—Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia as NATO members, are expected to be exploited as a basis for antidemocratic propaganda. Reviving old narratives such as the dragging of the region into unwanted conflicts, particularly by supporting Ukraine or invoking the NATO’S air campaign in Serbia in the 1990’s, are to be expected as well. Early disinformation may portray summit discussions on the new proposal for defense spending in contribution to claims for NATO’s “militarization” of the Balkans.
Actors aiming to undermine the Euro-Atlantic integration of the region are likely to spread distorted narratives highlighting divisions within NATO—such as tensions involving the U.S. or disagreements among European nations over Ukraine—in order to sway public opinion against the Alliance and promote so-called “neutrality” as a more appealing option. These disinformation campaigns are intended not only to undermine citizens’ trust in NATO but also to deepen internal divisions within fragile multiethnic societies. Such efforts threaten the region’s democratic progress, hinder reconciliation, and weaken its resilience to authoritarian influence.
Albania: Election results are likely to propel disinformation surges affecting citizens trust in democratic institutions
As Albania waits for the official results of parliamentary election held in May, there is growing risk of disinformation surges. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) gained significantly less votes than in previous elections, and both major parties are pushing conflicting stories. As DP rejects the results, it is expected to file complaints with Central Election Commission (CEC) that would delay publishing of official results. Experience from previous election cycle indicates that when the opposition is accusing the government of rigging the vote, the incumbent Socialist Party would try to undermine their credibility. Smaller opposition parties that won a few seats may be presented as helping the ruling party by splitting the vote. This back-and-forth blame and spread of misinformation is eroding public trust in the election process.
Considering that these are the first elections since Albania began EU accession negotiations, they carry significant weight for society, especially in shaping public discourse. Public distrust in democratic institutions—fueled by disinformation that casts doubt on the integrity of the electoral process and undermines the legitimacy of institutions and oversight bodies—is influencing the country’s path toward EU integration. Citizens with lower levels of media literacy are particularly vulnerable to misinterpreting the actual dynamics of the election.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Disinformation campaigns ahead of the Srebrenica Genocide Anniversary
The commemoration of the Srebrenica Genocide on July 11 has been identified as a focal point for heightened disinformation efforts in Bosnia and Herzegovina during June, particularly in light of the recent reaffirmation of the 2024 UN resolution. These disinformation narratives are expected to center on reframing and reinforcing genocide denial and glorification of war crimes. By extolling convicted war criminals and questioning the legitimacy of international tribunal verdicts, representatives of Republika Srpska and aligned media outlets promote denialism under the guise of defending “Serbian national dignity.” Such rhetoric fuels defensive nationalism, deepens ethnic divisions, and threatens the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s already fragile society.
Politicised disinformation campaigns about Srebrenica Genocide aim at switching the positions of Bosniak victims as manipulators, and misrepresenting Serbian perpetrators as heroes. International resolutions or particularly any recognition on a global level touching upon the Genocide, triggers new dissinformation attacks on the legitimacy of international institutions and testimonies of survivors. These campaigns are undermining the reconciliation and further polarizing the Bosnian society, strategically obstructing the Euro-Atlantic integration.
Kosovo: Police operations in the North are expected to trigger disinformation in public discourse
Operations by Kosovo’s police targeting institutions in the Serb-majority northern areas are likely to be accompanied by a spike in disinformation affecting public discourse. While officially announced as efforts to enforce legal sovereignty over structures operating outside the Kosovo constitutional framework, Serbian media often depict these actions as ethnically-motivated institutional purges. Diplomatic sources have expressed concerns about the potential disruption of essential services for non-majority communities and worsening of ethnic relations. This charged information environment is significantly undermining reconciliation efforts.
Such disinformation campaigns and hybrid interference, seek to delegitimize Kosovo’s state institutions by portraying them as oppressive and accusing them of mistreating local Serb communities. These narratives deepen ethnic divisions and fuel fear among the Serbian population, thereby undermining Kosovo’s Euro-Atlantic integration. By framing the enforcement of legal norms as Western-backed aggression, they depict Kosovo as unstable and unprepared for EU and NATO membership.
Montenegro: Anticipating disinformation targeting Montenegro’s tourist season
While Montenegro is preparing for the tourist season, the Montenegro’s Information environment is getting ready for predictable disinformation campaigns, expected to primarily originate from Serbian media. Based on media monitoring of previous years which have shown coordinated efforts in portraying Montenegro’s touristic capacities as unwelcoming for Serbian citizens as well as unsafe both criminally through exorbitant prices or mistreatment at the border, and environmentally in sense of polluted sea. The undertone of the narratives is expected to highlight Montenegro as economically viable and therefore incapable for European integration, with the goal of weakening a vital component of Montenegro’s economy.
The delegitimization of the country’s institutions by portraying them as unstable and not self-sufficient is directly affecting the Euro-Atlantic path of Montenegro. By using the “hero vs. villain” whereas the nationalistic Serbian sentiment is presented as heroic, these campaigns are undermining regional cooperation, deepening bilateral tensions and contributing to erosion of public trust.
North Macedonia:United Kingdom and North Macedonia Partnership Agreement likely to revoke migrant disinformation
The United Kingdom and North Macedonia strategic partnership announcement during the European Political Community summit in Tirana, has been making waves in the Macedonian information environment. Disinformation linking the agreement to the establishment of migrant “return centres” on Macedonian territory are very likely to resurface in the public discourse. False claims have already emerged alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s statement that the UK is in talks with several countries to set up such centres for rejected asylum seekers. While the UK is indeed expanding regional cooperation on migration issues, no formal agreement has been made with North Macedonia to host return centres or accept deported migrants, up to present point.
Online platforms and certain media outlets have distorted the facts, suggesting that the partnership agreement signed by the Government is part of a secret plan to house migrants returned from the UK. Some posts claim North Macedonia is becoming a “dumping ground” or “migrant depot” for Europe—playing into long standing anti-immigrant sentiment and stirring public fear..
Serbia: Serbia’s Emerging Environmental and Agricultural Crisis likely to inspire disinformation surges
Serbia is currently facing a deepening climate-induced agricultural and environmental crisis ranking Serbia among lowest in the region is ripping conditions for a disinformation surge. Emerging disinformation campaigns are likely to exploit this crisis in three key ways: by minimizing or denying the reality of environmental degradation, by linking ecological challenges to foreign influence—especially the EU—and by delegitimizing environmental activists and scientists. Particularly, narratives may frame EU-backed projects, such as Rio Tinto’s proposed lithium mine, as evidence of foreign exploitation, further inflaming nationalist sentiment and skepticism toward European integration.
These developments are ecologically urgent but also politically sensitive, as public frustration over ineffective mitigation efforts might escalate. Rural communities are already facing economic pressure, therefore it may become increasingly susceptible to misleading narratives and scapegoating. These efforts, often amplified by pro-government and nationalist media outlets, aim to weaken public trust in scientific institutions and international cooperation, while redirecting discontent toward political actors critical of EU accession—thus undermining both democratic resilience and environmental response capacity.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
