Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during July 2025, identified during June
Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Iran-Israel conflict as a vector for anti-West disinformation narratives fueling fear of regional spill-over
The increasing intensity of the conflict between Israel and Iran, exposes the Western Balkans to a new wave of disinformation, increasing the vulnerability of the region. Local actors, including some state run and private media, particularly those with Russian geopolitical alignments, are expected to use the crisis to further promote anti-Western sentiments and stoke fears of regional spill-over. The Muslim-majority populations in the region are anticipated to be more exposed to narratives highlighting the supposed “anti-Muslim” actions of the West towards Iran, questioning the Euro-Atlantic alignment as hypocritical. The rest of the audiences are expected to be targeted with narratives portraying the Euro-Atlantic integration as a danger due to retaliation from Iran, therefore affecting the support of citizens.
These disinformation campaigns have a number of aims: to undermine popular trust in national institutions, to portray West as a threat and ineffectual protector, and to discourage increased Euro-Atlantic integration. In countries like Albania, where presence of MEK (People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran) poses constant risk of Iranian influence including renewed cyber attacks, or Serbia and Montenegro, where pro-Russian and anti-NATO narratives are well-rooted, the Iran-Israel conflict is expected to be exploited as means of intimidation suggesting that alignment with the West is a provocation, inviting retaliation and anarchy. The ultimate target is to erode citizens’ confidence in democratic coalitions, divide societies along ideological lines, and shatter regional consensus on the path toward European and transatlantic integration.
Albania: Israel-Iran conflict is expected to incite disinformation narratives related to state`s cybersecurity
As global tensions escalate due to the Israel-Iran conflict, Albania is expected to become a potential target for new wave of disinformation and cyber disruptions, due to its alignment with the West and past experience with Iranian-sponsored cyber-attacks. The public alarm has been raised after Iranian group Homeland Justice took credit for a cyber attack on Tirana Municipality website on June 20th. Additionally, Albania has been sheltering MEK (People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran) Iran’s opposition movement in Ashraf 3 camp near Durres, making Albania`s information environment vulnerable to manipulated information framing the country as a potential battleground on the geopolitical scene. Disinformation campaigns are expected to intensify in the upcoming period, exploiting national fears that deceptively suggest either future military (or nuclear) strikes, strongly affecting public trust and simultaneously affecting the support for EU integration.
These intimidating narratives are expected to be sensationalized through low-credibility media outlets and social media groups, thriving on uncertainty, using simplistic hero-villain scenarios and framing Albania as powerless puppet of the West. These narratives will affect both EU integration and public trust in domestic institutions as well as the international policies of the country. By distorting the development of the country on cybersecurity – which is significant area in the negotiations for EU membership, but also undermining the public support for the country`s Euro-Atlantic direction by portraying the integration as a cause for danger, these campaigns aim to destabilize the public discourse and erode the Western influence.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Disinformation concerning genocide denial ahead of Srebrenica anniversary
As the July 11th anniversary of the Srebrenica Genocide approaches, disinformation narratives aimed at denying or downplaying the genocide are expected to infiltrate Bosnia and Herzegovina’s public discourse. Experience from past years shows that such manipulations aim not only to distort historical truth, but also to actively deepen societal polarization in Bosnia and Herzegovina. By spreading narratives that question the legitimacy of internationally recognized facts and court verdicts, these campaigns erode the fragile foundation of interethnic trust built over the past three decades. When war criminals are portrayed as national heroes and survivors are accused of manipulating historical memory, the result is a climate of mutual suspicion that discourages open dialogue and coexistence. This kind of disinformation reinforces ethnic divisions, making citizens less likely to envision a shared democratic future, and more likely to retreat into mistrustful communities defined by grievance and fear.
Beyond Bosnia and Herzegovina, this increase of such disinformation is expected to affect the rest of the Western Balkans. In Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo and North Macedonia, Srebrenica reinterpretation and genocide denial fuel revisionist narratives that legitimize radicalizing political agendas and divert regional discussion. By rebranding Bosniak victims as perpetrators and international organizations as pro-Bosniak, such initiatives shut the space for reconciliation and threaten to reverse hard-fought progress on Euro-Atlantic integration.
Kosovo: Deadlock-inspired disinformation amid institutional crisis and global tensions
Tensions in Kosovo`s public discourse continue due to the escalating post-election institutional crisis, resulting with inability to form a government and select a new Speaker. This enables further destabilization, fueled by disinformation campaigns that have been using the ongoing political stalemate to portray institutional immaturity. This situation is depriving Kosovo of its democratic credibility, thus weakening its European integration. Domestic and foreign antidemocratic actors are expected to exploit this vulnerability by pushing for potential snap general elections along with the scheduled local elections, and further polarize the society.
In the meantime, the power vacuum hinders Kosovo government response to ongoing wars on the international scene, which in turn enables actors such as Russia or Serbia to advance narratives questioning Kosovo`s legitimacy and its Western orientation. Religious and ethnic fault lines are particularly vulnerable to information risks, including the trend to strategically manipulate the link between the war in Gaza and Western double standards, in an attempt to erode popular confidence in the EU and USA. These attempts aim to delegitimize Kosovo`s Euro-Atlantic orientation suggesting that this alignment is complicity with a borader anti-Muslim double standard. Recent statements of US President Trump about the 2020 Washington Agreement for economic normalisation between Serbia and Kosovo have been used to revive old disinformation around the long-term effects of the deal.
Montenegro: Expectations for exploitation of global crisis for disinformation narratives fueling skepticism towards the Euro-Atlantic integration
Within Montenegro`s information environment, the geopolitics around Iran and its escalating conflict with Israel and the US, are expected to be exploited by pro-Russian and pro-Serbian media outlets, disseminating anti-West disinformation narratives. These narratives often depict the USA and NATO as imperialist aggressors and forces of global destabilization. Disinformation actors try to establish emotional analogies with past NATO interventions in the Balkans, trying to delegitimize the role of international institutions in Montenegro. Promoting narratives of victimhood and resistance, supported by local far-right discourse, strongly affects segments of population indifferent to Euro-Atlantic integration.
Amid tensions in the Middle East, disinformation narratives are expected to be dispersed through anonymous social media groups and pro-Serbian media outlets, sowing doubt on Montenegro`s Western alliances. These narratives aim at polarizing the society and fuel anti-NATO sentiment, providing fertile ground for local anti-democratic actors seeking to delegitimize democratic reforms. By framing regional alignment with the West as dangerous and morally compromised, these campaigns target public trust in democratic institutions and Montenegro`s strategic orientation towards NATO and EU.
North Macedonia: Anticipated anti-EU narratives amplified through identity fear-mongering
Public discourse in North Macedonia has been stirred by Prime Minister`s Hristijan Mickovski recently intensified anti-EU rhetoric, tying the European integration process to perceived threats against national identity. In a public statement, he claimed to have received “disturbing information” about coordinated attempts in Brussels to once again negate Macedonian language and identity. Such claims, including manipulative portrayal of the Prespa Agreement, have become common means of attempting to consolidate public support, particularly in moments of domestic political tension. Aimed at political rivals or framed as vague external conspiracies, this form of identity-based fear-mongering taps into long-standing anxieties and deepens public distrust toward the European Union.
The victimhood narrative with claims about threats to Macedonian identity, echoes and reinforces broader anti-EU narratives circulating in the country, arguing that EU accession would come at the cost of sovereignty and national pride. The EU is portrayed as applying “double standard” or with no intention of enlargement. This framing presents the EU not as a space of opportunity and reform, but as a coercive structure willing to sacrifice Macedonian identity for geopolitical compromise. Such narratives gain significant traction on social media, where emotionally charged content spreads rapidly, reinforcing polarization and undermining public support for integration.
Serbia: Anticipating the disinformation impact of controversial election of REM Council
Serbia is on the verge of an all-out media regulatory crisis, which is expected to undermine the information environment and strengthen the disinformation ecosystem. The extremely controversial process for appointing new members to the Regulatory Authority for Electronic Media (REM) Council resulted in the selection of only pro-government candidates, after 78 independent proposers withdrew the candidacy of 16 nominees due to the rejection of 30 formal objections. This Council is the primary regulatory body for all electronic media in Serbia, with the authority to oversee content—particularly during election periods. Its politicization represents a violation of EU standards on media freedom and electoral integrity, paving the way for an increase in disinformation.
The disruption of the selection process for new REM Council members is an open challenge to media pluralism and democratic norms, while the Government appears determined to tighten partisan control over one of the country’s most important checks on power. This will further entrench monopolization within the media landscape, which is already dominated by pro-government outlets that have historically promoted anti-democratic and anti-Western disinformation narratives. The influence of this media environment is expected to extend beyond Serbia, impacting the information spaces of Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and North Macedonia—turning Serbia into a regional conduit for disinformation, polarization, and democratic erosion.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
