Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during August 2025, identified during July
Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Disinformation around the 30th Anniversary of Operation Storm (“Oluja”) expected to stir the regional public discourse
As the 30th anniversary of Operation Storm (Operacija Oluja in Croatian, Serbian, Bosnian and Montenegrin) approaches, a wave of disinformation is expected to spread across Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia, with ripple effects in other parts of the region, particularly in Montenegro and North Macedonia, where Serbian-language media holds significant influence. This historic event is officially celebrated in Croatia on August 5 as the public holiday “Victory and Homeland Thanksgiving Day and the Day of Croatian Defenders.” Political actors across the Western Balkans are likely to exploit this emotionally charged moment to reinforce ethno-nationalist narratives. In the Croatian information space, narratives are expected to frame Oluja as a heroic operation that saved Bosnia and Herzegovina from a second “Srebrenica.” In contrast, Serbian narratives are likely to portray Serbs as the sole victims of ethnic cleansing. Both perspectives risk amplifying national victimhood while silencing or erasing the suffering of others. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly in Republika Srpska, the anniversary is likely to be used by Serb political leadership to stoke ethnic divisions and solidify nationalist sentiment.
Past disinformation trends point to the recycling of false imagery such as using photos of Bosnian refugees misrepresented as Serb victims to manipulate public memory and exacerbate inter-ethnic hostility among Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats. Following similar dynamics observed during the 30th anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide, nationalist actors are expected to deploy a mix of media manipulation, social media campaigns, and performative cultural events such as “patriotic” concerts and commemorations. These efforts seek to entrench polarizing narratives, obstruct reconciliation, and politicize shared historical trauma. Amplification across national and linguistic boundaries threatens to escalate tensions further, particularly among communities already susceptible to wartime propaganda and unresolved grievances.
In addition, populists have used the summer wildfire season to spread disinformation and blame their opponents, while much of the media remains complacent—downplaying or overlooking the positive role of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. This trend, first observed in July, is likely to continue into August.
Albania: Trust in democracy shaken by chaotic public discourse around Theth Demolitions, disinformation surges can be further anticipated
Albania`s information environment has been once again heavily polarized, this time concerning the sudden demolition of dozens of structures in Theth. The Government intervened in a protected national park by demolishing buildings that lacked formal permits justifying them as enforcement of the law. State-affiliated media framed the narrative of locals as illegal occupiers through the term “occupied land” (“tokë e zënë” in Albanian), which historically carries stigmatizing connotations toward northern communities. The opposition placed an alternative narrative that demolitions are political retribution for lack of support for the Prime Minister`s party in the recent elections. As additional claims that the land will be cleared for private investors are beginning to circulate online, disinformation feeding a broader public narrative that portrayed democratic processes as captured and manipulated are to be expected. The net effect will highly increase polarization and undermine trust in democracy by citizens.
One side sees the enforcement action as justified and necessary; the other sees it as selective, delayed, and politically motivated—deepening citizens’ distrust not only in institutions but also in one another. On the factual side, the Government did not provide enough time for owners to remove the objects themselves, although some of them were wooden cabins that could have been easily removed without demolition. Although the buildings were erected on privately owned land, most lacked formal permits due to complex and lengthy administrative procedures tied to the area’s protected status.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: New disinformation surges from old topics – anniversary of Operation Storm expected to be used for undermining country`s stability
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) remains vulnerable to disinformation campaigns wrapped around unsettled broader dynamics of post-war narratives. The failure of BiH’s political elites to reach a national consensus on the historical facts of the war allows alternative ‘truths’ to emerge, preventing societal wounds from healing and pushing citizens into deeper polarization. The approaching anniversary of Operation Storm (Operacija Oluja in local languages) on August 4 and 5, is anticipated to be one of them, with high potential to trigger tensions and disinformation campaigns that will deepen ethnic divides, using polarizing narratives that will manipulate historical facts, inflate casualty figures, or glorify one group’s actions while vilifying another’s. By causing deepening of societal mistrust and alienation of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, distortion of war facts is expected to be used for weakening Bosnia’s institutional cohesion. While it obstructs progress towards Euro-Atlantic integration, which requires national unity and basic respect for human rights, it is also hindering efforts at reconciliation and democratic governance within the country.
“Oluja” anniversary is frequently exploited by political actors, in an attempt to diminish other ethnic groups’ suffering and enable political obstructionalism. Disinformation narratives often portray Serb or Croat national perspectives, while marginalizing or denying the trauma experienced by Bosniaks. Public discourse surrounding the “Oluja” anniversary is stirred by partisan media and political actors who seek to use the event to advance political agendas. Republika Srpska`s nationalist actors leverage these sentiments to challenge state authority and promote secessionist rhetoric, threatening once again the regional stability.
Kosovo: Political stalemate fuels disinformation, campaigns undermining country`s stability and Euro-Atlantic path are to be expected
Kosovo’s public discourse has continuously been flooded with disinformation campaigns amid the ongoing institutional crisis and the inability to elect a new Parliament speaker or form a government. The atmosphere of increased public mistrust has been used to undermine democratic processes. Narratives framing the system as dysfunctional are expected to be used by external antidemocratic actors, opening way for hybrid activities such as the fake bomb threat while the Parliament is in session in early July. The investigation has linked the threat to Serbian citizens with ties to nationalists. The Government`s actions such as the unilateral building of two bridges connecting the north and south of Mitrovica, has contributed to the already tense inter-ethnic relations. The information environment has become fertile soil for Serbian state-linked media and Russian-backed platforms, to exploit this instability by spreading narratives aimed at delegitimizing Kosovo’s institutions and its ties with Western allies.
Domestic political actors have been actively contributing to the disinformation cacophony around the elections stalemate, pursuing their own political agenda. This chaotic public discourse where political fractions and affiliated online media are seeking to deepen divisions therefore erode trust in the democratic Euro-Atlantic trajectory of the country is expected to intensify. There are strong indicators for anticipation of false narratives including fabricated claims of secret political deals, abandonment by the West, fabricated violence, all designed to weaken Kosovo’s stability and justify external interference. The result is confusion and fear which diminish civic engagement and democratic efforts.
Montenegro: Tourism slump likely to fuel a disinformation-driven blame game
Montenegro’s information environment is expected to revolve around the underperformance in the 2025 tourist season. The season so far has sparked growing frustration among touristic workers, and business owners. Although arrivals are slightly higher, numbers show that overnight stays and revenues have declined. No coherent tourism strategy, increased taxes and infrastructure deficits are named among the reasons. However, failure of timely government communication is the strongest factor that is expected to contribute to the disinformation on the facts around numbers and reasons for mismanagement. Narratives spreading across political lines accusing the institutions of deliberately manipulating statistics to mask the crisis are already setting the stage within public discourse. Disinformation is expected to aim at delegitimizing institutions and wider democratic governance as such.
Untransparent institutions are also leading to speculations for elite interests that may be preparing to privatize or exploit valuable tourist areas, which are already deepening public distrust. Conflicting narratives polarize public opinion, with one narrative convincing of institutional failures justifying a harsh assessment of government’s incompetence, and another narrative fueling fears of external forces and domestic political battles undermining Montenegro’s path toward EU and NATO integration. Media outlets on both sides amplify unverified claims, further eroding trust in institutions and democratic resilience, particularly among tourist workers, small businesses and young people depending on the sector.
North Macedonia: Disinformation over institutional accountability expected to intensify amid wildfire crises
North Macedonia public discourse revolves around a series of dangerous wildfires, driven by extreme heat, dry vegetation, and suspected human involvement. Fires have broken out in multiple regions, with several spreading from landfills and roadsides into forests and private property.. Authorities confirm that arsonists have been caught in several locations, and citizens are being urged to report suspicious behavior. The information environment was further inflamed by a controversial statement of Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, who blamed the fires on the lack of cattle grazing in the mountains, claiming that without cows and sheep eating the grass, it grows tall, dries out, and becomes fuel for wildfires—shifting attention away from key factors such as human negligence, deliberate arson, and the lack of preventive measures. Further disinformation surges deflecting institutional accountability, and spin blaming political opponents are expected to continue throughout the summer.
The shortage of firefighting aircraft, pilots, and ground crews, while much of the equipment being outdated are increasing the distrust of citizens in the institutions. Statements like the Director of the Directorate for Protection and Rescue, Stojanche Angelov, who dismissed the need for modern fire detection tools like drones, are increasingly contributing to the disinformation cacophony. As fires rage across North Macedonia, conspiracy theories and sarcastic “climate denial” posts are circulating online, mocking the severity of the crisis. One widely shared narrative claims that an imaginary entity called “Climate Change” is behind the fires, referring to them as orchestrated “climate actions.” These narratives trivialize the real, science-backed consequences of climate change, discredit institutional responses, and fuel public distrust. They also ridicule fire prevention measures like temporary bans on forest access, by labeling them as authoritarian or tied to the 2030 Agenda.
Serbia: Amid Wildfires, disinformation likely to target student protests and reinforce anti-West sentiment
As wildfires raged across Serbia in July, with over 3,500 recorded during the first three weeks – the highest number ever reported, disinformation narratives are likely to emerge blaming student movements and opposition actors for allegedly starting or enabling the fires. Such false claims are likely to be designed to delegitimize ongoing civic protests and student-led activism, especially as these groups gain traction in the lead-up to potential early elections. The framing will likely suggest that these groups are either irresponsible or actively working to destabilize Serbia, fitting into the familiar disinformation pattern of portraying dissent as a threat to national stability. Narratives are expected to accuse student organizers of staging provocations or acting in coordination with foreign interests to harm the country, presenting the fires as part of an orchestrated campaign against the state, rather than taking accountability for lack of institutional reaction or prevention.
This disinformation is also expected to align with broader anti-Western and conspiratorial frames often used to portray Serbia as under siege by powerful external forces and internal traitors. Such messaging, amplified by pro-government media outlets and spread via coordinated social media networks, will seek to reduce public trust in civic movements. The most vulnerable audiences, particularly older citizens in rural areas who rely on traditional media, may absorb these messages more readily, reinforcing social polarization and diminishing democratic participation. Ultimately, the ruling elite benefits by deflecting blame from governance failures, consolidating support, and weakening the societal foundations of democratic dissent.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
