Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during September 2025, identified during August
Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Anticipated Serbian media influence on democratic integrity of fall electoral processes across the region
The Western Balkans region enters a politically charged season, with electoral processes scheduled this fall in North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s entity of Republika Srpska—while growing demands for early elections in Serbia add further uncertainty. Elections in the region have long served as fertile ground for anti-democratic actors deploying disinformation campaigns. This fall, the information space is likely to be saturated with narratives framing democracy as a failed model and amplifying foreign soft power backing favored political candidates. Serbian media influence is expected to play a strategic role in shaping perceptions of the 2025 electoral processes, while also reflecting domestic political tensions. Anticipated disinformation efforts threaten to deepen social divisions, undermine trust in institutions, and weaken democratic accountability, while fueling Euroscepticism and apathy. By delegitimizing electoral processes, such campaigns push citizens into polarized echo chambers, divided along ethnic and partisan lines, hindering constructive political dialogue.
In Kosovo, upcoming local elections risk reigniting tensions in the north, with Serbian-aligned outlets likely to portray the process as dominated by Albanian nationalist interests and undercutting the legitimacy of civic institutions by inflaming disputes such as the renaming of streets in Mitrovica. In Republika Srpska, early presidential elections and an impending referendum may be framed as evidence of Western overreach, casting Milorad Dodik’s removal and related court rulings as assaults on Serb identity, increasing threats of secession as well as will of the people. In North Macedonia, media and politicians under Serbian soft power influence could depict Albanian political actors as foreign proxies, further polarizing ethnic communities ahead of local elections. Such coordinated narratives threaten national cohesion, undermine trust in institutions, and weaken support for Euro-Atlantic integration, deepening instability across the Western Balkans at a critical electoral and geopolitical juncture.
Albania: Anticipated disinformation polarizing campaigns undermining freedom of press and trust in media
The August 24 police raid on Focus Media Group has drawn significant public attention in Albania, making freedom of press a likely subject of future disinformation efforts. Divergent narratives surrounding the incident could become a point of ongoing debate and contribute to increased societal polarization. While pro-opposition outlets will likely portray the police raid as institutional repression of free media and Prime Minister Rama’s cabinet as authoritarian, the pro-government voices may emphasize the legality behind the intervention, framing Focus`s Media ownership as corrupt oligarchy. This fragmented information environment will polarize citizens between genuine concerns over press freedom and manipulations designed to serve partisan or business interests.
Portraying both institutions and media as corrupt and biased is likely to deepen public distrust. A court ruling that partially overturned police action—allowing only Panorama journalists to return to their offices—may spark claims of selective law enforcement and political meddling in the judiciary. Competing narratives risk shifting debate from institutional accountability and journalistic integrity to personal attacks, leaving reporters under pressure or unemployed and increasingly vulnerable.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: BiH–Israel football match as a hot button for switching on disinformation propellers
The antidemocratic disinformation actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) are working hard on finding any topic that will further divide and polarize the citizens, and football matches are not spared from being used as a tool. The upcoming football match between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Israel scheduled to occur in Mostar on September 5 is very likely to be exploited connecting it to regional geopolitics. Narratives that will frame Bosniaks as Hamas supporters can be expected to flow from Republika Srpska`s outlets and affiliated international partners. These narratives have been part of a broader campaign aiming at portraying the Bosnian state institution and Bosniaks as people as security threats unworthy of Euro-Atlantic integration. Parallel narratives accenting that BiH team does not represent Croats of Serbs are expected to emerge from separatist outlets, often promoted by political actors such as Milorad Dodik and others, seeking political leverage. International amplification, including through Serbian or Russian outlets, could elevate the match into a geopolitical flashpoint.
Bosnian public debate was recently stirred by the abrupt cancellation of the European Conference of Rabbis in Sarajevo, after a local hotel withdrew its venue under political pressure amid denied claims the religious gathering supported Israel, or was a setup intended to discredit Bosniaks. During August controversy arose when the National Museum of Bosnia and Herzegovina announced proceeds from displaying the Sarajevo Haggadah would support Palestinian victims, drawing criticism from Jewish groups over politicizing a treasured Jewish manuscript. These events highlight how Bosnia’s interfaith heritage and European aspirations are increasingly caught in polarized narratives related to the Gaza war.
These narratives are reinforcing the colorful palette of tools being used for internal polarization, fueling hostility and potentially sparkling extremist incidents around the match. On a much deeper level, these narratives aim at weakening state cohesion and discrediting institutions in their preparedness for euro-atlantic integration by manufacturing security concerns. The powerful echo chamber that portrays BiH as dysfunctional and dangerous is creating risk of transforming a youth football match, seemingly a cultural event to be weaponized to erode trust in institutions and inflame ethnic divides.
Kosovo: Disinformation over ongoing institutional deadlock will likely threaten country`s stability and Euro-Atlantic aspirations
The prolonged institutional deadlock related to the forming of a new government, the decision of the President Vjosa Osmani to give or not to give the mandate to parliament majority leader Albin Kurti is expected to be weaponized through disinformation narratives that erode trust in institutions and democratic processes in the system. The Constitutional Court’s rulings that require open voting, limiting nominations and invalidating unconstitutional sessions, are set to be framed by domestic actors as overreach and “rule rewriting”. The opposition parties on the other hand are anticipated to present them as democratic safeguards. Partisan interests may attempt to discredit rivals, amplifying confusion among citizens over what is legal and legitimate. Serbian state-aligned media and Russian outlets are expected to recycle narratives portraying Kosovo as a “failed state”.
Local elections scheduled for October 12 are another flashpoint that can generate disinformation and media manipulations, in particular about the North of Kosovo including participation of Serbian party Srpska Lista and the security situation. Disinformation about the actions of local governments, such as renaming of the streets in North Mitrovica, have been present during August as means to create a picture of endangering Serbian identity by ethnic Albanian officials/majority.
These public discourse dynamics risk intensifying polarization within the country and shrinking civic trust in democratic processes. Competing thesis on whether the Court is defending or undermining democracy may push citizens into extreme and closed echo chambers, leaving them vulnerable to manipulation. Framing institutions as corrupt, illegitimate or incapable of governance could delegitimize the country`s democratic path and strengthen calls for destabilizing alternatives, including new elections under chaotic conditions. Internationally, narratives framing Kosovo as unfit to self-govern undermine its EU accession case and complicate NATO cooperation.
Montenegro: Disinformation on protest and surveillance laws risks eroding trust in democracy and Euro-Atlantic path
The attempt by the Montenegro government to pass restrictive protest and surveillance laws—withdrawn after triggering harsh backlash from civil society, opposition, and international actors—has opened space for disinformation ahead. The controversy opened the doors for endless disinformation campaigns which are expected to continue in the upcoming period. While opposition are expected to place narratives spawning fears around creeping authoritarianism, foreign and regional actors are expected to portray Montenegro as unstable and unfit for the EU. These narratives are likely to polarize society further, delegitimizing both government institutions and the Euro-Atlantic agenda.
Rival domestic actors accuse each other of either surrendering sovereignty to Brussels or blocking EU accession, while pro-Serbian media are expected to continue to portray integration as a threat to national freedom. These narratives erode trust in institutions, deepen partisan and identity divides, and cast Montenegro as unstable and authoritarian, weakening its Euro-Atlantic standing and complicating accession efforts. By fueling Euroscepticism they undermine needed reforms and hinder development of democracy at the time when Brussels sends optimistic signals encouraging EU accession.
North Macedonia: Incidents and disinformation hyping ethnic-tensions are expected to intensify amid fall local elections
Local elections in North Macedonia scheduled for October 19 and November 2 are set against rising ethnic tensions, already stoked by a combination of disinformation, media manipulations and hate speech. Politicians, media and troll networks on social media have been selectively framing recent incidents at a basketball and two football matches as ethnic threats, polarizing society and priming the information space for further manipulation. As elections near, such distortions of incidents are expected to intensify, fueling division and manufactured crises.
These dynamics increase risk of escalating polarization and eroding civic trust in the electoral process. Domestic partisan actors are expected to weaponize narratives of ethnic victimhood, framing institutions as biased or incapable of ensuring protection. Throughout the sports incidents, both Macedonian and Albanian language media outlets were amplifying nationalistic and sensationalist comments, portraying them as official/representative statements further eroding trust between the two ethnic groups. Foreign outlets and politicians are anticipated to amplify these divisions, portraying North Macedonia as unstable. This undermines democratic resilience and efforts for functional multiethnic society.
Serbia: A wave of anti-west and anti-EU narratives are expected to influence the public discourse amid Trump-Putin meeting
Following the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska, Serbian media aligned with pro-Russian narratives are expected to amplify portrayals of Vladimir Putin as a global peacemaker and Donald Trump as a leader sympathetic to Russian interests. These narratives risk fueling anti-Western sentiment and further entrenching disinformation frames that depict the EU and NATO as fragmented, hypocritical, or destabilizing. Pro-Kremlin outlets are likely to frame the negotiations as evidence that Russia rather than the West is the guarantor of peace and stability, sidelining international law and Ukraine’s agency in the process. As new rounds of negotiations are anticipated in the coming months, these narratives will likely be strengthened, presenting Serbia’s Euro-Atlantic partners as untrustworthy and weakening the case for EU or NATO integration.
These dynamics risk intensifying polarization within Serbia and undermining confidence in democratic institutions. By portraying Russia as a reliable ally and the West as morally corrupt or destabilizing, disinformation campaigns may redirect public sentiment away from Euro-Atlantic integration and toward closer alignment with Moscow. Younger citizens and politically undecided groups, who consume news primarily via social media, remain especially vulnerable to these emotionally charged narratives. Amplified by pro-government voices, nationalist actors, and coordinated online networks, such messaging could slow Serbia’s reform trajectory, deepen mistrust toward Western institutions, and fuel regional instability by strengthening extremist and nationalist movements across the Western Balkans.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
