Moldova suffered under the Russian Empire and the USSR, while pro-Russian politicians such as Ilan Shor work on returning these “good old days,” and if necessary, use violence, with the help of the Russian paramilitary Wagner and some other structures from Serbia. Part of Moldova is under Russian occupation (Transnistria), while the rest is target of Russian hybrid attacks. In such a tense atmosphere, the state also voted for president and for EU integration.
Author: Vangel Bashevski
On the 20th of October in Moldova, presidential elections and a referendum on its European integration were held, the latter of which gained more publicity in our country, reflecting the Euroscepticism of some of our fellow citizens, as well as the harmful influence from the Kremlin.
Exposing the pro-Russian narratives
The current pro-European President Maia Sandu, received 42.49 percent of the votes, and the main opponent Alexandr Stoianoglo, who conditionally represented the pro-Russian option, received 25.95 percent, but they are facing each other in the second round on November 3, 2024.
Allegedly, Stoianoglo is not as pro-Russian, as for example, the former president Igor Dodon, and his Party of Socialists, still standing behind Stoianoglo. So, the elections are perceived as a clash between the European and pro-Russian option, this being especially true for the referendum choosing the EU path for the country.
When the preliminary results of the referendum were announced, some in our country rushed to declare the defeat of the European option, even though the votes were not 100% counted, so they published headlines such as:
A major blow to pro-Western President Maia Sandu
Moldova said “no” to the EU membership referendum.
A SLAP FOR THE EU: Moldovans don’t want to enter the union
It was similar in neighboring Serbia, where it was written (translated):
The EU and the West are shaking! Moldova said “NO” to the EU referendum.
GEOPOLITICAL EARTHQUAKE: Moldova said “NO” TO THE EU referendum — Brussels quickly collapsing?!
This pleased the Eurosceptics and sympathizers of Vladimir Putin in North Macedonia (examples: here, here, and here), but they were disappointed by the final result, according to which the European option still won, albeit by a very small margin: 50.38 percent to 49.62 percent.
Some in our country suggested this turn of events was due to fraud (examples: here, here and here), and the MP from the pro-Russian party Levica, Redzep Ismail made an accusation of (literal) “electoral engineering.” This was also implied by Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, who made an accusation of the opposition in Moldova being oppressed. In this regard, the Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported:
Moldovan opposition denied the right to participate in elections
That is not true, the Party of Socialists, which nominated Stoianoglo, is an opposition party. Although he is not their member, the party stood behind him and he acts under its party emblem. Observers assessed the voting as mostly fair (sources: 1,2,3,4, and 5), unlike, for example, the voting in Russia, where Putin rules for 25 years, while the oppositionists are shot, poisoned, or die in prison.
There were irregularities in Moldova, on the part of the pro-Russian opposition, whose radical parts even planned violence. Behind them stands Ilan Shor, an oligarch and criminal who fled to Russia and is supported by Wagner paramilitaries and certain structures from Serbia.
On the 21st of April in Moscow, Shor established the coalition Pobeda [Victory], made up of pro-Russian parties from Moldova: Victory, Revival, Chance, and Alternative and Salvation Force of Moldova, and that includes Shor’s party, which is banned in Moldova. Unlike the more moderate Stoianoglo, Shor’s coalition is proven to be subversive and was not allowed to participate in the elections. The party is now bringing up its complaint to the UN, the EU and the OSCE, and that is the “oppressed opposition” that Peskov is talking about (in fact, it is a classic fifth column).
The turn of events, which surprised him, is a result of the votes from the diaspora, which took time to count. Moldova is poor, so over a million of its citizens live and work abroad: 250-300 thousand in Italy, 100-160 thousand in France, 100 thousand in Germany and so on.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova, stated there are 500,000 Moldovan citizens in Russia, and for them Moldova offered only 2 polling stations and 10,000 ballots, which means it sabotaged them, because they would have voted for the pro-Russian option. That narrative was present in our country as well.
However, Moldova has done so, because during the 2021 parliamentary elections, only 6,154 Moldovan citizens voted in Russia, compared to 66,293 in Italy. In the presidential elections, in Russia, 2020, 5,605 citizens voted in the first round and 14,068 in the second round, while in Italy: 46,516 and 83,032. In the last elections, 4,174 voted in one polling station in Russia, and 4,087 in the other.
Zakharova’s figure of 500,000 is incorrect or outdated. Different sources (Russian and Moldovan, newer and older, census and all kinds) provide different numbers — from about 6,000 to 700,000, while some also counted those Moldovan citizens who only briefly stayed in Russia (sources: 1,2,3,4,5, and 6). There is no precise number and it decreased drastically because of the war (see: here and here).
History of Russia’s hybrid war against Moldova
In the Middle Ages, there was the Principality of Moldavia, which after the conflict with the Ottomans had to become their vassal, but when in 1812 they were defeated by the Russians, the part of Moldova called Bessarabia fell under Russian rule. They brought their own settlers, suppressed the Moldavians, so they were reduced to only 47 percent in their own country, while their language and church were forbidden.
After the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917, several of its parts became independent: Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, etc., and the Moldavian Democratic Republic, then founded in Bessarabia.
Soviet Russia attacked them and installed its own regimes in them, thus creating the USSR. Bessarabia got out of it with the military intervention of Romania, of which it became an integral part in 1918. According to many, Moldovans and Romanians are the same peoples, but some disagree.
Vladimir Lenin launched a hybrid war against Romania by formenting uprisings in it, supporting the short-lived Bessarabian Soviet Republic and spreading propaganda through the press, which later continued through the radio. The following was part of that hybrid war.
In the Soviet geographical region of Transnistria, which was administratively under Soviet Ukraine, a certain number of Moldavians lived, so in 1924 the Moldavian Autonomous Republic — Moldavian ASSR was established there. It propagated that Moldavians are different from Romanians and that Bessarabia must separate from Romania and unite with the Moldavian ASSR.
In 1940 the USSR took Bessarabia from Romania and carried out that unification, after which it created a separate Moldavian Soviet Republic — Moldavian SSR, which was no longer autonomous within Ukraine. Stalinist repressions followed in the Moldavian SSR, as well as the indoctrination and replacement of the Romanian identity with the Moldovan one, part of which was the enforcement of the Cyrillic alphabet.
Modern Moldova became independent on August 27, 1991, but on September 2, 1990, Transnistria (Pridnistria) in Russia separated from it, where pro-Russian sentiments and the Russian and Ukrainian population dominate. Part of it settled during the time of the USSR, so the first president of Transnistria, Igor Smirnov, came to the state in 1987, he was otherwise born in distant Kamchatka, Russia.
The separatism led to war, while Moldova was defeated by Transnistria and Russia, which has kept troops there ever since. On the 22nd of June, the UN passed a resolution demanding their withdrawal, and on March 15, 2022, the Council of Europe expressed the opinion that this is Russian occupation of a part of Moldova.
The rest of the state is under hybrid attacks, backed by Shor. In 2014 he committed a billion-dollar bank fraud and was tried, but fled to his native Israel and then to Russia. From there he instigated protests in Moldova (2022-2023) and allegedly planned riots and a coup d’état.
Wagner and a group called Farma (perhaps a so-called “troll farm” of Yevgeny Prigozhin) helped him in this. Arrests of the pro-Russian saboteurs followed, and on June 19, 2023 Shor’s party was banned, nevertheless, as we have already said, he founded the coalition Victory in Moscow.
Bosnian Defense Minister Zukan Helez said there are Russian training camps in Republika Srpska, in which, as the Moldovan police clarified, a group was trained to overthrow the government in Moldova, which some have linked to Shor, and some to the Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia and its former chief intelligence officer Alexander Vulin.
The group was supposed to destabilize Moldova around the elections, but was arrested on October 17, 2024. However, the pro-Russian side influenced the elections by bribing voters and importing large sums of money for that purpose, while organizing voter transport to the polls, photographing or public display of completed ballots, misinformation and fake news, etc. were also observed.
While on the topic of voter transport, it should be mentioned that it was also organized for Moldovan citizens in Russia, to be able to vote in the diplomatic missions of Moldova for the pro-Russian option.
After all that, to claim that Moldova is doing “electoral engineering” is ridiculous. The same applies to the claims that Moldovans are dying to once again be the Bessarabian Governorate under the yoke of Russia, but that the “rotten West” does not allow them to do so. The exception are some citizens of Moldova, such as those from the autonomous region of Gagauzia, objectively having pro-Russian feelings.
