The
2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, scheduled for June 24-26, is expected to be a focal point for disinformation targeting Western Balkans public discourse, aiming at weakening citizens’ trust in the Alliance and deepening divisions between member and non-member states, as well as increasing polarization among the citizens within the states.
Narratives targeting the unity and purpose of NATO, exploiting complex historical ties and the geopolitics of the region, are expected to proliferate through local actors that had been promoting the interests Russia and China in Western Balkans.
Through highlighting disagreements within the Alliance, particularly on defense spending commitment and support for Ukraine, antidemocratic actors in the region aim to foster doubts regarding the effectiveness of the unity, portraying “neutrality” as a far better option. These are the elements of wider initiatives for destabilization of the Euro-Atlantic integration and promotion of so-called alternatives, better attuned for authoritarian actors (like joining BRICS).
The region of Western Balkans experiences high polarization in the support for the Alliance, varying from very strong support in Albania to low support in Serbia. This enables local anti-NATO actors to tailor the messages in the local context and adjust them to historical circumstances. This would mean that member countries like Montenegro and North Macedonia are expected to be targeted with narratives that will focus on the financial burdens of increased defense budgeting, while Serbia and Republika Srpska entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina to be flooded with historical grievances portraying the Alliance as a destabilizing force.
Depending on the level of their domestic influence, antidemocratic actors are expected to utilize state-controlled media, aligned private media outlets, unregulated social media platforms and local antidemocratic actors for dissemination of these messages, as well as to use these networks to amplify each other.
Democratic and pro-NATO actors in the region need to deploy a countering strategy, beginning with the Governments of the member countries providing transparent and verified advance information to the media, as well as being proactive in the media engagement regarding their participation in the Summit. Being mindful of the context and the need to debunk to manipulative narratives, professional and independent media should contribute to the democratic resilience and enhance the educational, informative role to the citizens regarding the role of the Alliance, through counteracting the efforts to erode public trust.
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This article is a part of the early warning alert system powered up by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project partners, based on the insights for June 2025.
Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
