Photo:Gerd Altmann auf Pixabay
This article was first published by Truthmeter.mk (North Macedonia), within the framework of Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Project.
Pro-Russian propagandists are now celebrating an alleged “defeat” of Ukraine, but the situation remains far from settled. With the announced peace deal, Russia could lose territory, and nothing is guaranteed—it’s not even written, let alone signed. Russia does not have full control over the annexed areas, and its claims of denazification and demilitarization have failed. Neither Kyiv nor President Zelensky have fallen, and Ukraine remains far from demilitarized, even holding part of Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The country now looks to Trump and hopes for a resolution at the negotiating table. Meanwhile, the EU is driven out, portrayed as the naive child in the room, while Trump and Putin are framed as the “adults,” yet they behave like “bulls in a China shop.”
Author: Vangel Bashevski
As early as May 10, 2023, Donald Trump boasted that he would stop the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” if re-elected, and on April 11, 2024, his close general Keith Kellogg published an idea of how it could be done. Trump was elected, but did not fulfill that “express” promise, so there were “rumors” of a peace plan that would be realized in 100 days, but its credibility was not confirmed.
Kellogg then talked about peace in 180 days, so we came to the conclusion that there was no clear plan and that’s why it was delayed. The plan is just now beginning to unfold, and we can only imagine what it will look like, based on ideas like Kellogg’s or the predictions of analysts and politicians.
However, pro-Russian disinformation agents across social networks are acting as if the peace agreement has already been signed and notarized. They claim it favors Russia, which they assert has already won, while portraying Ukraine as the clear loser of the war.
They also rejoice over the fact that the US is marginalizing Ukraine and the EU in the negotiations, with Volodymyr Zelensky even refusing to acknowledge them. However, we will analyze what the outcome could be if the agreement is eventually finalized, accepted and signed.
Russia may also lose territories
The first step in the peace process has been made through the mediation of Saudi Arabia in its capital Riyadh. Zoran Jovanchev from the pro-Russian Macedonian party Rodina says:
The Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, as well as the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions remain part of Russia.
Russia at this summit in Riyadh is a winning country, let’s not forget that.
Furthermore, the leader of the pro-Russian party Edinstvena Makedonija, Janko Bachev, adds:
Putin’s idea of the new reality: Russian annexation of four Ukrainian regions (the status of Crimea is a resolved issue for Moscow)
Summary: Putin is taking land from Ukraine
Zoran Jovanovski, a digital author close to the Russian embassy, says Ukraine:
Will first be divided (and it already is) as a punishment for past disobedience to Russia
Recognize the territorial reality on the ground.
The situation for Russia is dire. On the 30th of September, 2022, Vladimir Putin illegally annexed the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson without fully occupying them, so his annexation is largely on paper, which creates a huge problem for him.
Putin did not occupy Zaporizhzhia, and on the 11th of November, 2022, he lost Kherson, which by constitution and law are treated as “cities in Russia”, so if the peace treaty stipulates that each party will keep only what it realistically controls, Russia will have to forget about “its” territories. This is also true for Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and other Donbas cities over which the Donetsk People’s Republic lays claims.
In that case, Russia, as Putin sees it, will be divided. He would only be able to see those Russian cities with binoculars, through barbed wire. The forecasts suggest that the situation on the front will “freeze,” rather than result in a transfer of territory from Ukrainian to Russian control. As a superpower, such a loss would deal a significant blow to Russia’s reputation.
It stands to reason, there won’t be a transfer from Russian to Ukrainian control, but Ukraine isn’t a superpower, so it’s understandable that it would have difficulties. Furthermore, the Ukrainian territories that Russia retains will not be recognized by Ukraine as part of Russia.
Zelensky rejects this, and the annexation is null and void according to UN Resolution ES-11/4. Ukraine will continue to consider those territories temporarily occupied, but the agreement may prohibit future attempts to regain those territories, either by military or diplomatic efforts. However, that may change once Putin is gone. And, the fact that Crimea is a “settled issue” for Moscow doesn’t mean anything because the UN Resolution 68/262 still applies, according to which Crimea is Ukraine.
Ukraine did not lose the war
Regarding the peace talks between Trump and Putin, a Facebook post says:
Ukraine lost the war, so they’ll have to accept whatever Russia and the US decide.
On the contrary, Putin has suffered a series of defeats: the battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv from February to May 2022, the sinking of the cruiser Moskva on April 14, 2022, and, in the autumn, the loss of parts of Kharkiv and the neighboring Kherson Oblast, including Kherson—the only regional center Putin managed to capture during the full-scale invasion that began on February 24, 2022.
Zelensky is not overthrown, and Ukraine is not demilitarized, it is even more militarized, with powerful Western weapons and a larger army than before, which in August 2024 even occupied part of the Kursk region of Russia, from which the Ukrainians still cannot be driven. It’s the first foreign military invasion of Russia since 1941 by a non-nuclear state.
Putin has no major military successes, only in small places across the Donbas like Kurakhove and so on, so through Trump, who is leaning towards him, he hopes to force Ukraine to give up territory, withdraw from the Kursk region, shrink the army, not join NATO and hold elections, hoping that Zelensky will lose them. But for Ukraine, it would not be a loss of war, but a defeat at the negotiating table. Additionally, Trump would be the one deserving of it, not Putin.
The agreement will certainly require withdrawal from the Kursk region, but that is not a military victory for Putin, and it will also bar entry into NATO, which is not a victory, because some members certainly don’t want to accept Ukraine. France and Germany were against it in 2008, when there was a chance for that. And, of course, NATO is on Russia’s borders: Norway (since 1949), Poland (1999), the Baltics (2004), and Finland (2023).
Bulls in a China shop and kids in a candy shop
The US marginalizes the EU and Ukraine in the negotiations, despite the fact that it has lost thousands of citizens due to Russian aggression and the fight against it. This is happening in the EU’s own backyard, where it is also affected by the Russian threat—especially countries like the Baltic States, Poland, and others—and therefore has a say in the negotiations. But one Trump supporter laughed it off, saying:
Ukraine: Wow, wow, wow, we want to be at the negotiating table too! Wow, wow, wow!
Europe: Wow, wow, wow, we want to be at the negotiating table too! Wow, wow, wow!
Trump: Get away! The adults are talking now. The kids should be at the kids’ table. Shh!
While this post calls for maturity, it doesn’t seem quite mature, and the same goes for Trump and Putin’s “bull in a China shop” behavior.
Putin started the biggest war in Europe since World War II, destroying and massacring Ukraine, and as soon as he entered the Oval Office, Trump immediately began a rude and non-diplomatic attack on Canada, Denmark, Panama and other countries, mainly allies, for which he even expresses territorial claims, disrupting the entire world order.
Trump has harshly criticized European allies, especially for their weak defense spending, which stands to reason. He has not ruled out the possibility of exiting NATO. In Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump is imposing a deal that looks more like a demand for military reparations, such as the ones Germany received after the world wars, not long after Ukraine attacked America, so Zelensky did not sign it, just as he refused to recognize the negotiations if he was marginalized in them.
Trump is now attacking Zelensky, calling him a dictator, which is similar to the claims in our country that “Zelensky finished his term” and that he is not allowed to negotiate, but according to Article 11 paragraph 3 of the Law on Martial Law of Ukraine, the term in such conditions is extended.
At the meeting in Riyadh, which marks only the first step in the negotiations, the Trump team swiftly made significant concessions to Russia, which is highly unprofessional. However, Trump is known for being unpredictable and contradictory—he even supplied weapons to Ukraine, such as Javelin launchers, during his first term.
The narrative that Trump and Putin are the “adults in the room” is false. Given all the confusion we’ve seen so far, no clear conclusions can be drawn, and no victories can be celebrated. We simply have to wait and see how things develop.
